Japanese Stocks in the first Quarter 2025

[Hanimal]

The Japanese stock markets have been interesting so far this year. Even though the Nikkei and Topix are down, away from semi-conductors a lot of stocks have outperformed. I have been avoiding global indexes with the yen at historic lows against the US dollars and investing in individual Japanese stocks instead. All 10 of the stocks I chose for my wife's and my NISA are up. As are a bunch stocks in our taxable accounts.

My investments as a whole are at YTD highs. Hopefully the eMaxis All-Country fund will continue its slide so I can pick up some units at more reasonable prices in the tsumitate NISA. Glad I didn't follow the 'time in the market is better than timing the market' with regard to my tsumitate accounts.

Anyone else with similar experiences?

NB. I tend to go for high dividend stocks.

[beanhead]

Only new J stock i bought this year was Tokyo Metro, which is up a little.
I am a sucker for following a trend

[ChapInTokyo]

I think that a part of it is driven by the smart money getting out of overvalued assets and into assets which are comparatively indervalued (& of course, flight to safety), but yes the Japanese stocks I picked up last year haven’t been too shabby (having said that, my Peptidream and Ulvac stocks are currently deep underwater…)

[Deep Blue]

Glad I didn't follow the 'time in the market is better than timing the market' with regard to my tsumitate accounts.

You're looking at this on a far too short term basis. Equities shoudl be a ten year+ investment - it's utterly meaningless to look at how they perform over a few weeks. If you are investing in equities on this time frame it's little more than gambling.

[northSaver]

It's hard to imagine the All Country fund not falling further from here due to a looming recession in the US. This will impact US stocks and the USD negatively, which will have a double impact on the yen-based fund. It probably won't matter in the long run but in the short term (this year) I think we should buckle up for a rough ride. Personally I'll continue to buy it in both Regular and Tsumitate NISA each month and hopefully catch some low prices along the way. I also bought a chunk of it last week with some spare cash in my taxable account when it was -10% from the February high, and have pending orders set for -15% and -20%. So I'm not too worried about it dropping further in the short term. Almost wanting it to actually.

I also buy Japanese index funds regularly and have about 20% Japan / 80% other developed countries at the moment. I'm thinking of loading up on Japanese high-dividend stocks (e.g. ETF 1489) with spare cash on further dips. Fortunately I have quite a lot of spare cash at the moment due to a recent property sale! Just a bit worried what will happen if/when Trump imposes tariffs on Japan.

Interesting times for sure.

[adamu]

Anyone else with similar experiences?

My experience is that I've been investing in index funds in Japan since 2014 and I'm currently sitting on about an 80% return.

I did sell earlier this year at more than 100% return to cover some life event costs, though.

[sutebayashi]

Just a bit worried what will happen if/when Trump imposes tariffs on Japan.

Hopefully it will lead to cheaper rice product availability here in Japan?

[Hanimal]

You're looking at this on a far too short term basis. Equities shoudl be a ten year+ investment - it's utterly meaningless to look at how they perform over a few weeks. If you are investing in equities on this time frame it's little more than gambling.

Just to set the record straight about your 'gambling' comments. I have been invested in the US markets since when the yen was 100 to the dollar and valuations of US stocks were twice as reasonable as they are today. So, I'm well allocated in those areas already.

Also, I am in a wealth protection phase. I am overweight in cash, other non stock-related investments, and high-yielding stocks. The purpose of dividend stocks is produce extra revenue so I won't ever need to sell investments except for unplanned situations.

In addition, I still invest in the tsumitatae portion of NISA and iDeco. Last year when the yen hit 140 I increased my US allocations.

I have everything on spreadsheets and know my risk profile. I don't mind missing out on the 'guaranteed 9%'
annual profits which some people claim I can get with the S and P. I have experienced various crashes in stocks even before Lehman, so I am happy with my allocations and don't consider that I'm 'gambling.

[Hanimal]

I think that a part of it is driven by the smart money getting out of overvalued assets and into assets which are comparatively indervalued (& of course, flight to safety), but yes the Japanese stocks I picked up last year haven’t been too shabby (having said that, my Peptidream and Ulvac stocks are currently deep underwater…)

You seem to have a sound strategy. Investing around a million yen in variety of stocks. Of your stocks I only have Muji. I invested it in when it was in the doldrums. I am up 182% not including dividends.

I used to have Toyo Tires and Yokohama tires. Tires seem like a pretty stable business, so maybe I should have kept them.

[ChapInTokyo]

I used to have Toyo Tires and Yokohama tires. Tires seem like a pretty stable business, so maybe I should have kept them.

Yes. And Toyo Tires have excellent fundamentals, and high dividends coupled with a pretty modest dividend payout rate.

Their US subsidiary has the coolest videos on their YouTube channel too!