captainspoke wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 11:46 am
What is your rationale, given your other post:
ChapInTokyo wrote: ↑Thu Nov 21, 2024 3:47 am
I was reading this article about how the proposed tariffs under Trump could very well lead to the US dollar climbing higher.
What are your guesses?
Donald Trump’s policies risk making the US dollar a source of global instability
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/11/do ... nstability
Although Trump favours a weaker exchange rate, his policies are likely to have the opposite effect. The risk is that the US dollar could become too strong, which is bad news for the global economy.
How are you tying these two things together? (or are you?)
My thoughts would start by considering whether: tariffs and a trade war might not be so good for int'l/EM equities.
What do you think?
After some further thought, I decided to bet on Avantis' International small cap value (
AVDV) for the Intl component, and value for the emerging market component (
AVES), and a combination of Vanguard's U.S. Multifactor ETF (
VFMF) and Avantis' US Small Cap Value ETF (
AVUV) for the US market component (Some of these are not available yet in Japan, so I guess I'll get them in my Firstrade DRIP automatic re-investment enabled account).
45%
VFMF - Vanguard U.S. Multifactor etf (ER 0.18%)
20%
AVUV - Avantis U.S. Small Cap Value etf (ER 0.25%)
26%
AVDV - Avantis International Small Cap Value etf (ER 0.36%)
9%
AVES - Avantis Emerging Markets Value etf (ER 0.36%)
My thinking with this is that even if we hurtle towards a trade war, which will hurt all companies everywhere, the smaller profitable companies which are often serving more defensive, local markets, there will be a margin of safety protecting them. The average expense ratio for the above combination works out at 0.257% which seems very reasonable when compared to traditional actively managed funds.
![Image](https://i.ibb.co/S7VQPKW/2024-11-26-23-34-54-www-portfoliovisualizer-com-2998471d232c.png)