Crypto's going crazy again!

[OkiBum]

Who's excited?

I know most of you are against it or do not own any..

[mikeinjap]

Not excited at all since I have no idea what drives the prices.

Surprisingly, and don't ask me why but my wife got into crypto about a month ago after attending a seminar and put in ¥300,000 which I obviously advised against but she says its currently worth ¥1,600,000. Either she knows what she's doing or it's just luck, I'm leaning towards the latter but hoping its the former .

[RetireJapan]

Damn. Would probably recommend taking some profits (or at least the original stake out).

Congrats

[OkiBum]

Not excited at all since I have no idea what drives the prices.

Surprisingly, and don't ask me why but my wife got into crypto about a month ago after attending a seminar and put in ¥300,000 which I obviously advised against but she says its currently worth ¥1,600,000. Either she knows what she's doing or it's just luck, I'm leaning towards the latter but hoping its the former .

Just out of curiosity, which coin did she buy?

[mikeinjap]

I have no idea but I'll try to find out more.

I think I'm just going to stick to index investing in my NISA account.

[StockBeard]

Damn. Would probably recommend taking some profits (or at least the original stake out).

Congrats

I would also jump on profit taking if I was seeing a 500% return in 1 month.This does look waaaay too good to be true so I'd love to know what happens next, mikeinjp.

[adamu]

Just remember if you'd bought the hype last time when Bitcoin was $20K, you'd still be at a 75% loss right now.

Yes, you could make lots of money if you get lucky, but it's more like gambling than an investment.

I think the most sensible thing to do if you want to experiment is to decide the maximum amount of your net worth you are willing to risk, invest a fraction of that, say 50% of it, and if it *does* increase above that maximum amount, start selling. If the value rises above your pre-determined risk tolerance, the temptation to increase your tolerance is huge in anticipation of more gains. I did this myself. It's addictive, irrational, and quite reckless. It's also irresistible. I'm not sure if there's a way to deal with this - maybe automation so that you don't have to rely on self-discipline.

[mighty58]

Crypto is hardly "going crazy". Bitcoin is up sightly over 10% since the end of April, which is standard territory in terms of crypto volatility. The other major coins are up less than that.

For the poster above who's 300,000 stake is now "worth" 1,600,000 ... cash out now, assuming you can (ie assuming this token of yours actually has liquidity). The fact that your wife attended a seminar before buying it and the rapid run-up in price has pyramid scheme written all over it. And if you decide to hold, just for shits and giggles, fine, but whatever you do resist the temptation to put more into this seemingly "great" investment.

[adamu]

Crypto is hardly "going crazy". Bitcoin is up sightly over 10% since the end of April

This thread was started at the beginning of April, when the price jumped by $1000, or about 25% in a couple of days. Still not as crazy as the 25000% etc. it's seen in the past though

[amattie]

One point I don't often hear people make when talking about Bitcoin valuation -- which is especially important when addressing Warren Buffet type complaints that it's a worthless asset cause it doesn't do anything -- is that we are working out the exchange rate on a new global currency, and that rate is based on supply (basically fixed) and demand, including expected future demand (like in the valuation of any asset or currency). People disagree about the future demand for Bitcoin -- it may be Myspace rather than Facebook, or it may be neither -- but the economic principles are basic enough, aren't they? That being said, of course there may be some weirdness and market manipulation going on, but that doesn't much affect the buy and holders.

I also wonder if anyone here made money off the ridiculous arbitrage opportunity that existed when crypto times were good and Bitcoin was selling for maybe 8-10% more here in Japan than elsewhere. I was in the process of opening an account on an exchange in Canada with the goal of wiring a couple million yen to my Canadian bank, transferring it into the exchange, buying Bitcoin, zapping it over here, selling it for a big profit (even including all transaction fees) and repeating the process as quickly as possible. But it took maybe 6 weeks to get approved on the exchange in Canada, during which time the spread evaporated -- but it had persisted for weeks or maybe months prior to that.