One thing that says is that the majority around here could not correctly predict the future.
Another aspect to it is that I think that poll started before the FOMC tightened up their monetary policy at rapid pace.
We could run another poll now and one thing for sure is that things will occur in the future that will render (or reveal) those guesses as useless (but it’s still fun to guess anyway!)
Here it depends on the definition of long term. We’ve only had about 50 years of the current currency regime. So the usd/yen started around 360, went as low as 75, and now we’re back to 150.What I assume as the common position is that for SP500, it will eventually go up in the long term, and for developed-world currencies, they will fluctuate over some average zone in the long term.
On a shorter time frame yes indeed the yen is weak now.
But I think this is not random movements; there are fundamental reasons behind this.
It’s why I am not seeing the yen in a favorable light right now - not until something changes to make the yen look better relatively.