To rollover, or not to rollover ... that is the question

[tokyojoe]

Dear All,
I am just considering whether to rollover a regular NISA at the end of this year. This was a
first ever NISA, so I played it perhaps a little too safely with a high proportion of bonds. I have done a few
basic calculations (presented below) which suggest that it would be better not to rollover; I would be interested to
hear any comments, since maybe I am missing something.

The NISA in question (into which I originally invested the full 120 man yen) now has the following profile:
name ------------------------------------------ type --------- current value - %TOT -- %profit --- AER
ニッセイ外国債券インデックスファンド BOND ---- 691,251 ---- 42.47% ---- 15.2% ---- 2.87%
ニッセイ外国株式インデックスファンド SHARE --- 832,138 ---- 51.13% ---- 63.2% ---- 10.3 %
eMAXIS slim 国内株式（ＴＯＰＩＸ) JSHARE ----- 104,064 ---- 6.39% ---- 15.6% ---- 2.94%

TOT = 1627453 yen, PROFIT = 427453 yen, 35.6%

Although one shouldn't use previous performance as a future predictor ... that is exactly what I will do here just to have
some simulation of the various possible strategies (i.e. I will simulate using the growth rates for previous 5 years for coming 5 years).
The aim is for capital gain - the funds will not be needed in next 5 years.

Option 1: Rollover full amount
----------------------------------------
Value of these funds in 5 years time is 691251*1.152 + 832138*1.632 + 104064+1.156 = 2258436 yen

Option 2: No rollover (reinvest 120 man yen from these funds in share index NISA, put remainder 427453 yen in share index in tokutei)
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Value of these funds in 5 years time is 1200000*1.632 + 427453 + (427453*1.632 - 427453)*0.8 = 2601973 yen
(I am simulating selling the index at the end of 5 years and paying 20% capital gains tax)

Option3: No rollover (reinvest 120 man yen from these funds in share index NISA, put remainder 427453 yen in bond index in tokutei)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Value of these funds in 5 years time is 1200000*1.632 + 427453 + (427453*1.152 - 427453)*0.8 = 2437831 yen

As you can see, these simulations suggest that maximum capital growth would be gained from Option 2, no rollover and re-invest in share index.
I would be interested to hear any comments / advice you may have.

[beanhead]

You don't have to roll over everything.
So roll over the overseas equity funds with the best returns, but not the bond funds or that Japanese fund.
Then buy new overseas equity funds with the remaining 370,000 yen to make up 1.2M (?)

[tokyojoe]

You don't have to roll over everything.
So roll over the overseas equity funds with the best returns, but not the bond funds or that Japanese fund.
Then buy new overseas equity funds with the remaining 370,000 yen to make up 1.2M (?)

Many thanks for the reply, and apologies for the slight delay in getting back to you.
I wasn't aware that partial rollovers were possible - this would seem like the best way forward.

I guess it is more or less equivalent to Option 2 as described above in terms of projected capital growth(?),
but by using the rollover you avoid the losses involved in selling and re-buying the same stocks?