RetireJapan

With the Coronavirus crisis hitting hard on the stock market and the Bulls run looking a bit weeker than last year I am starting to believe that perhaps we might be looking at a Bear Market scenario. I had some good returns from my IDECO portfolio last year however it is very much stocks funds based. With that said it is frightful to see all the returns going away with the possibility of a recession scenario, that is why I would like very much to hear you guys opnions on how are you managing your accounts for when the bear comes.

Keep it like it is, dont look at it and wait for the bulls again?
Switch from stocks to Bonds / Gold / REIT?

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RAKUTEN IDECO

Current Products / Type / Current Allocation %

楽天全米株式バンガード楽天ＤＣ (30) / Overseas stock / 35%
楽天ＩＮＤＥＸバランス楽天ＤＣ (32) / Balance type / 31%
三井住友つみたてＮ日株楽天ＤＣ (02) / Domestic stocks / 17%
楽天ターゲット２０５０楽天ＤＣ (25) / Target / 5%
三井住友ＤＣ日本リート楽天ＤＣ (09) / Domestic REIT / 4%
明治安田ＤＣ日債楽天ＤＣ (08) / Domestic bonds / 4%
ＳＳゴールド為替Ｈあり楽天ＤＣ (28) / Commodities (GOLD) / 2%
三井住友ＤＣ外国リート楽天ＤＣ (19) / Overseas REIT / 1%

I'm lazy, and don't believe I have any kind of edge in terms of information.

I am planning to completely ignore anything that happens, to continue making the same regular purchases, and to believe that in ten years' time nothing that happens this year will matter very much.

I may be wrong, but that is my plan right now.

I agree with RetireJapan. I don't try to time recessions or bear markets because even if I guessed right about the time to sell I would probably miss the time to buy back in. Also the need to pay taxes each time you sell really hurts your returns (at this point something over half of my portfolio is unrealized capital gains; it would be very painful to pay all those taxes). I also don't try to use new funds for more conservative investments. Instead I try to stick with my investment plan. I don't enjoy watching the market go down and don't get much comfort from the idea that stocks are "going on sale" but I think Jack Bogle was correct when he admonished people to "stay the course!" in their investing.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:53 am I'm lazy, and don't believe I have any kind of edge in terms of information.

I am planning to completely ignore anything that happens, to continue making the same regular purchases, and to believe that in ten years' time nothing that happens this year will matter very much.

I may be wrong, but that is my plan right now.

Yep, that is my point of view. If I see the market going bad on the news better not even open my IDECO account.

TokyoWart wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 6:22 am ...even if I guessed right about the time to sell I would probably miss the time to buy back in. Also the need to pay taxes each time you sell really hurts your returns (at this point something over half of my portfolio is unrealized capital gains; it would be very painful to pay all those taxes).

By management I mean instead of selling, rebalancing the percentage of each allocation. Switching to other funds with lower risks than stocks such as bonds or commodities for example. But for sure, trying to time the market is no good. Therefore I am thinking to keep investing the same way however still interested to listening to other strategies to secure your portfolio.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Thu Feb 27, 2020 5:53 am I'm lazy, and don't believe I have any kind of edge in terms of information.

I am planning to completely ignore anything that happens, to continue making the same regular purchases, and to believe that in ten years' time nothing that happens this year will matter very much.

I may be wrong, but that is my plan right now.

This 100%.
Back in 2007 Warren Buffet made a $1m bet that he could beat hedge-funds with all their complicated portfolios and risk strategies, just by investing in the S&P500. He won that bet. And that 10years included the 2007~2008 financial crash...

Don't fret, carry on investing in the same global index fund monthly +1

I wouldn't say I'm lazy, just that my investment strategy is to not change the strategy based on market conditions.

If you make conservative changes now, then the market bounces back, you'd have been better making no changes.
I don't know what's going to happen, so I just keep to the index.

It's probably a good time to re-assess your risk tolerance though, because it's easy to consider yourself tolerant when you're making a profit, no so much when the opposite is happening.