RetireJapan

Just did my monthly net worth spreadsheet. Seems like everything is going up at once.

Makes me nervous

Another year of living expenses accumulated in Feb. Net worth ATH. Pretty crazy stuff.

How's everyone else doing out there?

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 3:49 am Just did my monthly net worth spreadsheet. Seems like everything is going up at once.

Makes me nervous

Another year of living expenses accumulated in Feb. Net worth ATH. Pretty crazy stuff.

How's everyone else doing out there?

Same here. Increase in net worth each month is now far outstripping earned income, so no longer opening new classes and accelerating reduction in working hours. Basically moving into semi-retirement and doing coast FIRE now. Until the markets crash and I start panicking!

I had a look this morning. Investment account (in dollars, and even with a some gifting), one year is +32%, two years is +17.5%. For 2024, I'll try to give shares, to pass unrealized gains on to someone else...

House is worth less than it ever was, same situation for my 15 year old car (shaken appointment next thursday).





(oh, and compared to some people in the news, my name doesn't have any brand value)

goodandbadjapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:31 am Until the markets crash and I start panicking!

I'm thinking about what the worst case likely scenario looks like. For us, market crash + yen strengthens. Wouldn't be surprised to see our net worth in yen go down 60%.

But one would expect the markets to recover, and a stronger yen would allow us to buy more with our NISA allocation. Silver lining?

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:59 am [Wouldn't be surprised to see our net worth in yen go down 60%.

But one would expect the markets to recover,

Recover in time… after the GFC it took a few years I believe.

There is where the rubber really meets the road.

I believe that many many tsumitate players out there will opt to sell out, ala the carry trade bubble that was going on back in those times.

Not sure if I myself will have the balls to stay with it for the long term - and with NISA reuseable now, I am even less confident.

If I have balls, I will ignore it all wrt my investments, and continue my speculative dabblings (just me…)

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:59 am

goodandbadjapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:31 am Until the markets crash and I start panicking!

I'm thinking about what the worst case likely scenario looks like. For us, market crash + yen strengthens. Wouldn't be surprised to see our net worth in yen go down 60%.

Out of interest, how would you calculate that, potential, 60% drop? How did you get to that number?

Say, for example, someone currently had X yen amount of emaxis slim all country...

SOT wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 6:53 am

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:59 am

goodandbadjapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 4:31 am Until the markets crash and I start panicking!

I'm thinking about what the worst case likely scenario looks like. For us, market crash + yen strengthens. Wouldn't be surprised to see our net worth in yen go down 60%.

Out of interest, how would you calculate that, potential, 60% drop? How did you get to that number?

Say, for example, someone currently had X yen amount of emaxis slim all country...

Oh, it is NOT a calculation

But something like 40% stock market crash combined with the yen strengthening by 33% would do it.

Could be worse, of course

Just like the EarthQuakes here I like to see the occasional tremor so that the stress gets released and we do not get a big one.
I would like to see this market drop a bit, rather that seeing it constantly climb higher and we pay later with a major drop...

Timely video I saw today on this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DyaFRxaUvR4

“ But one would expect the markets to recover”
It took in excess 15 years recover from the 1929 crash and the Nikkei took in excess 30 hope we do not see something like this

Heh, yes
If one is in equities only, it’ll be quite a ride.

I’ve got 65%-70% foreign equities in my portfolio so if they do become cheap in a big bear market, the thing I know that I should do is rebalance… assuming that my other asset classes (bonds, reits, gold) don’t do even worse, but that is not supposed to happen

All my assets might do bad if the yen were to strengthen in a big mad rush back to Japan by yen sellers.

Even if I do retain my own composure… I am not sure about the majority of other investors… it’s a bit like that prisoner’s dilemma.