RetireJapan

Hello. Hope you are having a wonderful winter holidays. Inspired by a Value Investing FB group post, what do you think would be the next biggest black swan event in Japan that would affect the stock market?
Hopefully we are mostly, if not all, long term investors in Japan, and as such we also think about the various risks of investing in this country (true as in any other countries).

One thing I could easily think of would be natural disasters, for example, another case of the 2011 Great Tohoku earthquake. Anything else?

Mt Fuji erupting, North Korean missile strike, conflict with China over marine resources, fiscal collapse.

If Ukraine doesn't get support against Russia, or the US bails out on Ukraine, then the next big event could be China Invading Taiwan. Although not specific to Japan I think it would have a huge impact on the whole region. Especially if NK also saw a chance too. Wether japan would get drawn in ....i don't know.

Nankai trough earthquake and tsunami. Game over.

(not really a black swan event I guess as everyone knows about it)

New virus.

Discovery of yellow swans.

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:57 am If Ukraine doesn't get support against Russia, or the US bails out on Ukraine, then the next big event could be China Invading Taiwan. Although not specific to Japan I think it would have a huge impact on the whole region. Especially if NK also saw a chance too. Wether japan would get drawn in ....i don't know.

China invading Taiwan would be apocalyptic for the whole world. Instant recession nd probably years and years of depression. Even if the US doesn't get drawn in, all the worlds advanced semiconductor plants are in Taiwan and the supply chain distruption would make the pandemic seem like a storm in a teacup.

I think the nature of black swan events is that you can't predict them, so the thread seems quite pointless

Next time the stock market crashes for a new reason, whoever predicted the cause should write their "I told you so" here.

adamu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:19 am Discovery of yellow swans.

adamu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:22 am I think the nature of black swan events is that you can't predict them, so the thread seems quite pointless

Still interesting to think about though

I think that Japan propping up its military budget and the fact that the US encouraging this, Japan will definitely be pulled in to a Taiwan conflict if ever there was one

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:20 am

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 3:57 am If Ukraine doesn't get support against Russia, or the US bails out on Ukraine, then the next big event could be China Invading Taiwan. Although not specific to Japan I think it would have a huge impact on the whole region. Especially if NK also saw a chance too. Wether japan would get drawn in ....i don't know.

China invading Taiwan would be apocalyptic for the whole world. Instant recession and probably years and years of depression. Even if the US doesn't get drawn in, all the worlds advanced semiconductor plants are in Taiwan and the supply chain disruption would make the pandemic seem like a storm in a teacup.

I totally agree. But when I see Taiwanese advanced semiconductor plants opening up in the US, it makes me think that strategically that "chip" would be taken away from Taiwan, and there would be no reason to get into a HOT WAR with China since those plants have been relocated. Let's hope it doesn't come to that, but I am convinced China would have studied the Cuban missile crisis and "blockade". China's naval build-up really has only one purpose. Lets hope we never get to see that Black Swan.