RetireJapan

This is probably a naive question (for which, apologies) but is now a good time to transfer GBP funds from the UK to Japan? I'm thinking of the current value of the Pound. Thanks for any feedback.

The only real answer here is 'we don't know'. Exchange rates are not predictable, so we'd just be guessing.

What's the money for? Do you have a reason to bring it to Japan? What is it doing in the UK? (bank account, invested?)

I think the GBP and Yen are two of the most struggling currencies now.

There is a lot of volatility surrounding the UK markets at the moment, but at the end of it, the GBP might come out stronger… versus the yen. Could be weaker too though.

On the other hand, I don’t even see volatility around the yen. It’s a one way road of decline for the yen recently.

Personally, I would consider selling some yen for pounds myself, not the other way around, but this is a gamble on how markets react to Kwarteng’s presentation on Oct 31. And then what happens politically after that.

The US dollar currently looks the better currency to own, but it’s more the least dirty of all the dirty shirts.

This is just a question of currency speculation, in the end. Most currency speculators find themselves in the red at some point.

If you are looking for a better time to sell your GBP for JPY, I personally would wait a bit, as I see no signs of the yen being about to strengthen markedly. Japan has worse debt problems than the UK does, and no signs of an end to the monetary easing, unlike all other major developed markets.

If you are rather just purely looking to speculate, and willing to lose money, you could open an forex broker account with a limited amount of funds and try your hand there, to limit your downside.

(Personally I was a currency speculator before I turned investor, and it is far easier to make money through passive investing than it is by currency speculation!)

"The only real answer here is 'we don't know'. Exchange rates are not predictable, so we'd just be guessing.

What's the money for? Do you have a reason to bring it to Japan? What is it doing in the UK? (bank account, invested?)"

Thanks Retire Japan for the above reply to my question. I want to transfer a substantial sum for house renovations not speculation or investment. I'm just wondering if now is a good time to make the transfer to gain on the present GBP-Yen rate. Thanks!

Since you want to use the money in Japan, I think you ought forget about when to convert the GBP to JPY, because that part does come down to luck / speculation. It sounds like you want to use the money soon rather than wait for a more favourable rate.

What you can do to maximize your GBP is to look into the most cost effective way to transfer/convert those funds to yen. There are some threads about that in the Banking forum. (There again, you can spend some time/effort in setting up things to get the most bang for your pounds, but when you consider the benefits you might decide it is easier to go with a simpler but more costly transfer/conversion method.)

novalis wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 12:14 am "The only real answer here is 'we don't know'. Exchange rates are not predictable, so we'd just be guessing.

What's the money for? Do you have a reason to bring it to Japan? What is it doing in the UK? (bank account, invested?)"

Thanks Retire Japan for the above reply to my question. I want to transfer a substantial sum for house renovations not speculation or investment. I'm just wondering if now is a good time to make the transfer to gain on the present GBP-Yen rate. Thanks!

Well the rate is decent at the moment compared to any point within the past few years so in your shoes I would be thinking of doing it now. One approach would be to send half now, then the rest just before you need it. If the rate moves in your favour before the second tranche you will be happy enough, and if it goes the other way at least you have locked in half at a better rate. As mentioned, make sure you choose a cost-efficient way of sending as
you wouldn’t want to pay hefty fees twice.

I couldn’t imagine the pound doing well in future. The UK has wrecked it’s financial reputation, which doesn’t augur well for a country with big budget and current account deficits.
It can also expect a massive impact from Brexit, in terms of trade barriers, inflation, etc.

Japan isn’t In bad shape by comparison, but they refuse to raise interest rates when other major central banks are doing so. I don’t think the yen will remain weak long term though, as economic fundamentals are not bad here.

Japan’s financial reputation looks worse to me - look at debt to GDP. Budget deficits for decades. Not even a political debate about fixing it.

It’s the central bank here snapping up the government debt that papers it over, whereas the BOE is calling an end to their bankrolling the government spending.

Neither look great but I’m more likely to bet some extra money on Britain before I do Japan.

Hope both can work through the issues though.