RetireJapan

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:30 am I am sitting with a few million yen.and I am doing DCA at the moment. NISA,JNISA and IDECO. So this isn't a discussion about DCA. We all know the benefits of that, as well as Lump sum investing.

We all understand, that we can't time the market" perfectly, but we can collectively share our thoughts and ideas on what informs us to make a LUMP SUM Investment at a certain Time. and since its probably the first time I would be able to do some lump sum investing I'd like some help from others who are way more experienced than I.
Anyway, I was wondering what indicators do you work on? Who do you listen to? what do you watch? The reason I'm asking is because I have just discovered a new phrase called the "DEAD CAT BOUNCE".are we in one?

But I was wondering what others views on this are.
DO you think there is quite a bit for the S&P 500 to fall? Micheal Burry thinks things could go down 50% ish and were already down 21% .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts to the newbie.

gnakarmi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:38 am

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:30 am I am sitting with a few million yen.and I am doing DCA at the moment. NISA,JNISA and IDECO. So this isn't a discussion about DCA. We all know the benefits of that, as well as Lump sum investing.

We all understand, that we can't time the market" perfectly, but we can collectively share our thoughts and ideas on what informs us to make a LUMP SUM Investment at a certain Time. and since its probably the first time I would be able to do some lump sum investing I'd like some help from others who are way more experienced than I.
Anyway, I was wondering what indicators do you work on? Who do you listen to? what do you watch? The reason I'm asking is because I have just discovered a new phrase called the "DEAD CAT BOUNCE".are we in one?

But I was wondering what others views on this are.
DO you think there is quite a bit for the S&P 500 to fall? Micheal Burry thinks things could go down 50% ish and were already down 21% .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts to the newbie.

Doesn't answer your question directly. But here's a data point for you.

I did a lumpsump into emaxis all country on May 22.
I was down around 3-5% a couple of weeks back, but now its about +2.25% from when I went in.

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:46 am

gnakarmi wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:38 am

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:30 am

Doesn't answer your question directly. But here's a data point for you.

I did a lumpsump into emaxis all country on May 22.
I was down around 3-5% a couple of weeks back, but now its about +2.25% from when I went in.

Thanks for that, and every bit helps us. But could I ask, what was your thinking? buying the dip? Just drop the money in, because you had it?
I'm rather boring when it comes to long term investing, but this time my financial circumstances are different, and inflation could erode the value of what I have.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:25 am I have a large amount of cash at the moment, which I am DCAing into mutual funds. At the current rate of purchase (I do an order on Rakuten every time the previous order clears), it will take 15-20 months to be fully invested.

I plan to do a lump sum investment if markets fall considerably/the yen gets stronger/both.

So far that has not happened.

northSaver wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 6:56 am Here is something I read on a Monday Read link a long time ago and it really struck a chord with me:

"Here's the plan I use with the cash in my portfolio:
When stocks fall 10% from a recent high, I invest half the cash in my portfolio.
When stocks fall 20% from a recent high, I invest half the remaining cash.
When stocks fall 30%, I invest the remaining cash.
Why those levels? In short, because we see 10% declines about once every year or two and 20% declines about once every five to seven years; a 30% decline has happened only six times in the past 70 years. Holding cash for bigger drops is a losing move since the market has always recovered far more than it lost before falling 30% or more again. Sure, it's possible we could see another 30% drop in the next year or less; it's that history says it's not a probability worth betting the farm on."

You can adjust the percentages for other markets too, like bonds (which don't fall as much as stocks usually). And sure, stocks may drop 50% from the high - who knows? - but I personally doubt it. Some smart investors I know are even predicting rate CUTS in the not too distance future!

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:35 am Thanks sharing your thinking on when to drop in a large amount of cash. So I'm assuming you just watch the news and the graphs and will pull that trigger, when the bear comes.