RetireJapan

goodandbadjapan wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:14 am It's nuts. Last year, we hit our low FIRE number and I thought it would take till at least the end of next year to hit our more comfortable FIRE number. We passed that a few months ago and it is really just gravy and security padding now (until the crash). We could go for a fat FIRE but the way the world is now we barely spend any money anyway! We are probably going to cut back our classes considerably in April.

runmanTX wrote: ↑Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:21 am
Well, CONGRATULATIONS are in order. Great job to hear about you obtaining your FIRE target. If I may be so bold to ask, how old are you? I'm looking at another 12 years or so before retirement unless something BIG comes along. I love to hear that someone is hitting their retirement. It is very encouraging, indeed.

beanhead wrote: ↑Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:09 am I guess true Bogleheads would say that if you are nervous your asset allocation should be fine-tuned.

If I were you, I would certainly consider selling some equity to replace it with cash or a bond fund.

But while such outsized stock-market gains have been fairly rare in the past 70 years, past performance shows that 2022 still could be a robust year for returns, according to a review of historical S&P 500 performance by Truist Advisory Services.

Indeed, Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist, found the S&P 500 has produced at least 25% annual returns (including dividends), only 18 times since 1950. But in the following year, the broad-based index rose 82% of the time, notching average annual gains of 14% (see chart).
...
“Two of the three years where stocks failed to rise, 1981 and 1990, coincided with recessions,” Lerner wrote, in a Friday client note. “Our work suggests near-term recession risk remains low.”

“The other downside market outlier was 1962, which was challenged by a flash crash and deteriorating investor confidence,” Lerner wrote.