RetireJapan

What's everyone's thoughts on EV stocks on a 5 year time horizon?

I have my eyes set on Tesla and NIO, but the current stock values are completely out of whack compared to their revenue and current state. I'd like to know the sentiment of this market on this board in particular, as I get the feeling that members here tend to be more risk averse.

I have no edge on this one. I think EVs are the future of transport, but I have no idea which company is going to profit off them.

I tried trading in the past and it just stressed me out, so I just buy indexes with most of my money and dividend stocks with my play portfolio

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Wed Jan 06, 2021 12:06 am I have no edge on this one. I think EVs are the future of transport, but I have no idea which company is going to profit off them.

I tried trading in the past and it just stressed me out, so I just buy indexes with most of my money and dividend stocks with my play portfolio

This does not seem sustainable to me. However, I could be wrong!

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautifu ... &context=3

As you say, there is so much expectation and hype already built into the stock price (especially of Tesla) that it's difficult to say if the stock price will keep going up. What is certain, however, is that EV's are here to stay, and that their market penetration will continually get higher (timeline being over the next 20 years rather than 5, but the trajectory is the same). However, the big OEM's are also getting into the act, so it's hard to predict which of the new startups, if any, will become the next big thing.

Tesla is of course strong, is around to stay, and will likely merge with one of the big OEM's in the future. However, whether the stock price keeps going up is anyone's guess because of the clear overvaluation.

I'm pretty bullish on NIO, they're big in China, and I like their swappable battery concept, as well as their design sense and innovative business models regarding turning the battery into a separate revenue stream.

I'm also bullish on Magna, as I think they are the only company positioned to cater to those (both startups and OEM's alike) that need flexible contract manufacturers of high quality. Magna will win regardless of who the next big manufacturer is, and I predict that the rise of purpose-built vehicle platforms and a decreasing importance in the branding of OEM's will benefit Magna tremendously. As an established company, you probably can't expect Magna to produce super stock returns akin to some of the startups though.

As for the likes of Lordstown Motors, XPeng, Nikola, Fisker, Lucid, Rivian, etc. ... who knows. I think Nikola has an interesting play, focusing on the long-haul trucking segment, and working with both hydrogen and EV's. They should be considered high risk though, as they have been battered by various rumours that have knocked them off course, but if they can turn the perception around, I think they offer something compelling that is completely different from the rest of the pack.