Page 10 of 10

Re: Bond Allocation

Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2023 5:46 am
by TokyoBoglehead
ToushiTime wrote: Wed Jun 21, 2023 5:21 am
An investor typical buys a bond fund (example - ETF: BND as we all seem to be ignoring $/¥ risk) for the dividend. There is capital yield from the buying and selling of bonds, and investor sentiment,but capital yield should never be a reason to own a bond fund.

That's not why someone would by an individual bond either.
The reason to own a government bond fund is the reduced volatility, putting aside the unresolved question of $/¥ risk. That scenario I gave was mainly to illustrate how mutual (government) bond returns could fluctuate, i.e. upward in that scenario, if central bank rates were cut in response to a crash, which would be an added benefit.

Being distressed is not a sign of instability, selling during these periods is the unstable action.
Selling during such periods is not a sign of emotional instability either.

Millions of retail investors panic sold on the way down during the GFC. It’s easy to dismiss them all with hindsight.
My portfolio doesn't need bubble wrap and corner protectors.
:mrgreen:
I agree, given your current situation.
Could you ever imagine yourself adjusting the ratio, assuming you retire in Japan? (not a rhetorical question, just curious).
Yes, but more towards holding more cash.

If the yen recovers I may move a million or so to USD treasuries, but I'm in no rush. There is good reason to be skeptical about sovereign debt

A. It's recent apparent correlation with equities
B. The currency risk (broken record, sorry)
C. Examples such as Liz truss and the debt ceiling

Re: Bond Allocation

Posted: Wed Jun 21, 2023 6:11 am
by ToushiTime
I hear you on C in particular.