RetireJapan

OkLah! wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:34 am Trying to make any sense of what’s happening now is simply impossible. Unless you want to lose your sanity.

We are basically told that this is the end of the world (despite 99.3% survival rate of the so called killer virus) and if by chance it is not the end of the world then we are told nothing will ever be the same.

Which I kind of agree since there are much more dangerous things out there and they will remain after virus is gone so why would anyone take any risks anymore???

Now the new norm is to only die of old age anything else will be prevented at any cost.

It is like climate.
If you dare to even slightly challenge the consensus than you are a horrible being.

Now if you dare put things in perspective, if you dare to say that if you are healthy you have virtually 100% of being ok within 2 or 3 days then you are a horrible being that denies that this pandemic is the worst ever event In human history.

I agree to a certain point, the news is using certain key words, which people don't really understand.especially the word PANDEMIC as it brings up images of hollywood movies, death, destruction and zombies. But they do keep using words such as, DEATH, PANDEMIC, OUT OF CONTROL, OVERWHELMED, RECESSIONS,PANIC BUYING,can't cope, rather than on educating the public. Unfortunately the wally in the white house saying WAR FOOTING, isn't really helping.

I think you're missing one main point. While the survival rate is nigh, it is the sudden spike in hospital admissions, that can overwhelm a health system, meaning certain patients cannot get the treatment they need.
Also, the added complications of someone with say asthma, heart problems, diabetes, on cancer treatments, people with transplants, and on immunotherapy increase your risk of dying IN THOSE GROUPS, not to mention the elderly. This is on top of an ordinary flu season. The research also pointed out that some of the patients who are younger died because they smoked, vaped or had an underlying condition.
Combine this with say a health care system/social support system like the US, and that can cause a massive problem.
If there is no sick pay in the US, young people who are healthy will go to work and pass this on to others. Further more since health care system is based on an ability to pay, then many people who are ill, but not so ill won't go to their doctors, or people who can't afford to go, won't seek treatment.
It is not the healthy who should be worried, the world won't come to an end for you, BUT THEY SHOULDN'T SPREAD IT AROUND.
But for some people with severe ASTHMA, Heart conditions, Emphysema,cancer patients, et al, it could easily be deadly.

Remember it is the ASYMPTOMATIC people who are dangerous, because they'll pass it on to about 3 or 4 people before showing symptoms, not the sick patients themselves, because they are identified and isolated. Thats the problem! The young are fit and healthy and practically indestructible, but can pass this on to others who may not cope.

We have forgotten how the spanish flu wiped out 50 millions, and that affected mostly young people.
SARS 15% mortality.
EBOLA 50% mortality.

I'm not of the zombie doom and gloom, but i can see how this could overwhelm a health service and get out of control. If the US,JAPAN,UK et are under strain, I can't imagine what pressures this could put on say poorer nations, who don't have the same health care systems as the richest nations. It's not just about my back yard.
Infection control is the key at the moment, and basically since there is no vaccine, herd immunity will have to build up reducing pressure on the health services.

paul wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:11 am Any thoughts on what is happening to REITs?
1476 iShares REIT ETF is down nearly 50% since the start of this, and 12% today. I obviously understand there will be an overall drop as retail is struggling, possibly some companies will move to more wfh? But can't understand why it's continuing to fall, and falling so much on a day like today when the overall market is fairly steady.

Any thoughts?

Guess: Social congregation is being discouraged, so businesses that were surviving by paying rent from income earned from people coming to them now don't have the money to pay next week's rent. The business looks like its going to need to close the doors, only the doors are not owned by that business, they're borrowed from the owner of the property, so all the stuff inside needs selling before they can close. The option for the business owner is to pay rent out of their own pocket or just walk away. If they walk away, that leaves the property owner in the position of having a building that is now not generating income with stuff in it that they need to clean out before they can rent again. But its not a great time to find tenants for the building you want rented, so property owner suffers too.

If the property owner decided to give the current tenant free rent they would keep the tenant, but may still have the bank mortgage to pay.

Pretty bleak.

creed wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 10:01 pm

paul wrote: ↑Thu Mar 19, 2020 3:11 am Any thoughts on what is happening to REITs?
1476 iShares REIT ETF is down nearly 50% since the start of this, and 12% today. I obviously understand there will be an overall drop as retail is struggling, possibly some companies will move to more wfh? But can't understand why it's continuing to fall, and falling so much on a day like today when the overall market is fairly steady.

Any thoughts?

Guess: Social congregation is being discouraged, so businesses that were surviving by paying rent from income earned from people coming to them now don't have the money to pay next week's rent. The business looks like its going to need to close the doors, only the doors are not owned by that business, they're borrowed from the owner of the property, so all the stuff inside needs selling before they can close. The option for the business owner is to pay rent out of their own pocket or just walk away. If they walk away, that leaves the property owner in the position of having a building that is now not generating income with stuff in it that they need to clean out before they can rent again. But its not a great time to find tenants for the building you want rented, so property owner suffers too.

If the property owner decided to give the current tenant free rent they would keep the tenant, but may still have the bank mortgage to pay.

Pretty bleak.

In microcosm, that may happen to my wife's business. We'll ask the landlord to give us a rent reduction if we are forced to close, which would give us a couple more months of runway. Difficult times.

REIT stocks and ETFs are getting smashed. I see some on the NYSE have dropped as much as 80%. However, I'm pretty confident that the big boys will bounce back. Likely a cut in dividends for the short term though.

StockBeard wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:38 am

eyeswideshut wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:18 am The final thing is to follow the sage advice of the Hitch-hiker's Guide to the Galaxy, and don't panic.

I'll grab my towel!

Yep main thing is not to panic
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR0lOtdvqyg

captainspoke wrote: ↑Tue Mar 10, 2020 4:01 am I've been sitting on lots of yen for quite while. So with fingers crossed I used just shy of a third of it to buy dollars yesterday--shinsei, got a rate of 102.66. Then later it strengthened into the 101 range (gulp!), but has now gone the other way (~103.7).
...

So I sold a few minutes ago, about 109.7, so I made 7 yen on each dollar involved.

As with the buy, I could have gotten another yen with better timing, but this will do.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 1:38 am .....
In microcosm, that may happen to my wife's business. We'll ask the landlord to give us a rent reduction if we are forced to close, which would give us a couple more months of runway. Difficult times.

I recall hearing a report about Italy that the banks stopped requiring mortgage repayments. If the owner can get a break on their needs it would seem to be a good time to discuss your needs too. Hope you can get through this.

Those of us in Japan right now are very lucky. Life is still relatively normal here.

In some countries the government is paying people’s wages. The world economy will take decades to recover from this devastation.

If Japan comes out of this unscathed it will be in a very strong position globally.

We’re in a bubble right now. And we all know what happened the last time a bubble burst here...

I think the government is being way too relaxed here, and it filters through to the general population.

We had 10,000+ people waiting in line here in Sendai to see the Olympic flame yesterday

Yep fully agree, I guess with thre Olympics they want to try and hide this, which will not work out for them in the long run