RetireJapan

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:52 am Well, it seems the S&P500 sale is back on.
We had a rally for about 6 month sale followed by a new rally for a month. Certainly interesting to see how long the sale will continue.

eMaxis Slim S&P500 hit a new all time high last week. There's been a slight fall back since then (~4%), but I wouldn't call these all time high prices a sale just yet

TBS wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:40 am

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:52 am Well, it seems the S&P500 sale is back on.
We had a rally for about 6 month sale followed by a new rally for a month. Certainly interesting to see how long the sale will continue.

eMaxis Slim S&P500 hit a new all time high last week. There's been a slight fall back since then (~4%), but I wouldn't say these all time high prices are a sale just yet

emaxis slip S&P500 hitting the high were more to do with JPY/USD rates, right?

gnakarmi wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 1:41 am emaxis slip S&P500 hitting the high were more to do with JPY/USD rates, right?

Yeap, a combination of the devaluation of the yen and the rally the S&P500 has had over the last 2 months.

If you're holding USD, the price of the S&P500 TR index is the one to look at. This index is currently 14% down on its peak at the start of the year.

For people earning/holding yen, the emaxis slim price is the better figure to look at as it accounts for the USD/YEN currency rate.

I guess the majority on here are in this second camp. Certainly all the calculations in this thread so far have assumed yen as the base currency.

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Aug 24, 2022 12:52 am Well, it seems the S&P500 sale is back on.
We had a dip for about a 6 month sale, followed by a new rally for a month. Certainly interesting to see how long the sale will continue. I’m still dropping in regular amounts every week, no matter what the price!
For every pundit that says it’s doom and gloom, there are pundits who think the other.
I’ve certainly been aware of emotions there. This is then I wish I was like Spock or Data from Star Trek.highly illogical things.

Corrected those typos that the iPhone auto correct put in.

Hopefully, it will all work out in the end. But I do wonder if this is another looooong dip.Only the gods know.

Tkydon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:15 am Continuing the DCA Challenge

my 2 year experiment to test whether a Single Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging is the better strategy right now, starting the End of Jan 2022...

Anyone remember this thread?

Now 20 months have passed and all the DCA investments in the experiment have been made. A lump sum of ¥200,000 invested in eMAXIS Slim All Country on Feb 5 2022 beat DCA'ing ¥10,000/month for 20 months by +6.7%. For eMAXIS slim S&P500, the figure is an +8.9% higher return from LSI than DCA.

Looking back at past yen-based MSCI ACWI data, LSI has beaten DCA over 20 months 70% of the time since 1988, and the average outperformance of LSI vs DCA over those periods is +6.6%.

TBS wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 2:52 pm

Tkydon wrote: ↑Tue Jul 05, 2022 6:15 am Continuing the DCA Challenge

my 2 year experiment to test whether a Single Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging is the better strategy right now, starting the End of Jan 2022...

Anyone remember this thread?

Now 20 months have passed and all the DCA investments in the experiment have been made. A lump sum of ¥200,000 invested in eMAXIS Slim All Country on Feb 5 2022 beat DCA'ing ¥10,000/month for 20 months by +6.7%. For eMAXIS slim S&P500, the figure is an +8.9% higher return from LSI than DCA.

Looking back at past yen-based MSCI ACWI data, LSI has beaten DCA over 20 months 70% of the time since 1988, and the average outperformance of LSI vs DCA over those periods is +6.6%.

I concede defeat. Absolutely nothing played out as I expected ;-(

Tkydon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 4:13 pm I concede defeat. Absolutely nothing played out as I expected ;-(

We should put that on a t-shirt or coffee mug or something for you

adamu wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:08 am

Tkydon wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 4:13 pm I concede defeat. Absolutely nothing played out as I expected ;-(

We should put that on a t-shirt or coffee mug or something for you

Harsh, adamu, harsh

Respect to Tkydon for acknowledging this.

(new line of RJ merch?)

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Wed Sep 06, 2023 12:25 am Respect to Tkydon for acknowledging this.

I second this! Well done Tkydon for starting the experiment and for humbly acknowledging that it didn't work out. The S&P500 (a big part of the All World fund) actually went nowhere in the last 20 months, which would have been great for a USD investor using DCA, especially considering that some of the uninvested cash would be earning interest in a savings account. But the USD.JPY rate rose 28%, and no interest on JPY cash, so there's no way the DCA approach would have worked for a yen investor! Though it's interesting that the lump sum approach would only have outperformed by 6.7% over the last 20 months, according to TBS. Not an amount to lose sleep over?

A salutary reminder than time in the market > timing the market.