RetireJapan

Last month I switched my pension AVC fund from 100% global equity to 50% equity, 50% bonds. The decrease in the former has been largely balanced out by the increase in the latter.

I thought equities were high and I wanted to protect the fund against some unforeseen event.

Ain’t I the smartass...

Markets down another 10+% overnight. Bought more shares and will continue to deploy my (non-emergency) cash into stocks but wondering when we are going to find a long term bottom - My gut tells me we have further to fall in the long run.

eyeswideshut wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:30 am Markets down another 10+% overnight. Bought more shares and will continue to deploy my (non-emergency) cash into stocks but wondering when we are going to find a long term bottom - My gut tells me we have further to fall in the long run.

I'm expecting volatility for a while. Would not be surprised if these big swings continue.

Also if the US/Japan also have Italy style outbreaks I would expect a lot of economic damage: companies going bankrupt, etc.

Interesting times!

Markets down another 10+% overnight. Bought more shares and will continue to deploy my (non-emergency) cash into stocks but wondering when we are going to find a long term bottom - My gut tells me we have further to fall in the long run.

I'm expecting volatility for a while. Would not be surprised if these big swings continue.

Also if the US/Japan also have Italy style outbreaks I would expect a lot of economic damage: companies going bankrupt, etc.

Interesting times!

I'm asking myself the same questions. Investing more quickly would make me feel better about the paper losses in my accounts but I am also sticking to my usual investment plan (saving from monthly salary income and reinvesting dividends as they come in) and not giving in to the temptation to put my emergency fund into the market. I think the economic disruption is going to be staggering (just heard from relatives in Northern California about cities being put on lockdown) but I hope short-lived.

OkLah! wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 7:29 am The markets are in a cash-run mode where you sell everything at whatever price.

All stimulus packages are ignored since they will help only once the pandemic is over and things start to recover.

You can set rates at -100% if won’t cure the disease.

Only slightly positive news is that a vaccine is in Phase I and competition is high for first vaccine. So let’s hope some good stuff comes out of this.

In the meantime it is a war time type of situation.

This is it. As soon as a vaccine is developed the stock market rout will end and shares will jump massively in my opinion. No amount of monetary stimulus and even fiscal stimulus will have much impact otherwise. The US just announced a possible 1 trillion in fiscal stimulus including sending cash to all Americans ... and the stock market went up mildly and now the futures market is turning red again. But how can people spend cash when the stores are closed and supply chains are broken due to quarantines and sickness? The longer this situation persists the worse it will get and only a vaccine or some other sign that the pandemic is over will change this.

OkLah! wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:43 am Also expect large increase in number of divorce. Being forced under stressing circumstances to stay with spouse 24/7 will be testing for many couples. Natality will drop I think.
[...]
It is really interesting to see how we collectively reacted to all the past outbreaks compared to this one. Hope one day someone will be able to shed some light and understand why this time around it feels like the end of the world when the other time we accepted it as a part of the cycle of life.

I find those two points pretty interesting. The first one because I never thought of that impact (although one might argue the exact opposite of what you're saying, natality could climb and some people might re-discover they enjoy their spouse's presence), the second one because I agree and am wondering why it is different this time. Is it because a lot of people were blamed during H1N1, a lot of lessons were learned, and we are now living the actions taken as a result of these lessons? Do we feel it's better than during H1N1? I was blissfully unaware of the danger during all the past epidemics of this scale, and it felt better to me...

On the hunch that couples being together might be a good thing, in 9-10 months there'll be a baby boom.

And then 12-13 years later, those kids will be known a quaranteens.

captainspoke wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 4:03 am And then 12-13 years later, those kids will be known a quaranteens.

That might be the first time I've laughed since this whole thing started.

Any thoughts on what is happening to REITs?
1476 iShares REIT ETF is down nearly 50% since the start of this, and 12% today. I obviously understand there will be an overall drop as retail is struggling, possibly some companies will move to more wfh? But can't understand why it's continuing to fall, and falling so much on a day like today when the overall market is fairly steady.

Any thoughts?

Ok boomer.