Northern Investor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 8:33 am
My apologies. My goal was not to bring politics into the discussion, but certainly the possibility must be entertained, and it’s hard to separate politics and the market, regardless of opinion. I’m seriously worried about it, and it’s caused me to considering pausing my investments into 2025 until I can get some clarity on the future of the US.
Anyways, I’m sensing this is too charged a thing to bring up here, it’s not on topic and I’m happy to let it go. Please carry on and apologies once again.
I don't think there will be much of a change per se, but historically,( and can be checked) the stock market performs better under a democrat ticket. But to be honest, I don't think we are going to base our investments on which party is in power. Same with the UK!
sutebayashi wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:32 pmIf Congress is gridlocked then they won’t be able to do all of the stuff they have been talking about during the election campaigning.
Unfortunately Trump could do a lot of the tariffs without Congress.
sutebayashi wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 1:32 pmMy main concern is that the US is becoming like Japan with the massive public debt, so hopefully both sides cut spending back to pre-Covid levels and enact policies that are positive for tax revenue, showing us a balanced budget or better, when they actually take the reins. If they come in and do anything too crazy I trust the US bond market will give them a good spank.
Both candidates have pledged to put their foot on the fiscal stimulus accelerator. I woudn't expected either to come up with anything like a balanced budget - that isn't what they have campaigned on.
Northern Investor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:09 am
On an aside, what are the chances a Trump win could plunge the US into an authoritarian nightmare and destroy the entire market? Er, asking for a friend.
COVID: didn't destroy the entire market
War in Europe: didn't destroy the entire market
1st Trump Presidency: didn't destroy the entire market
It's probably a good idea to ignore the noise, keep investing regularly, and your future self will thank you for it.
That is my strategy, anyway.
If I were 65 or 70 I may have a different view.
Aiming to retire at 60 and live for a while longer. 95% index funds (eMaxis Slim etc), 5% Japanese dividend stocks.
Northern Investor wrote: ↑Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:09 am
On an aside, what are the chances a Trump win could plunge the US into an authoritarian nightmare and destroy the entire market? Er, asking for a friend.
COVID: didn't destroy the entire market
War in Europe: didn't destroy the entire market
1st Trump Presidency: didn't destroy the entire market
It's probably a good idea to ignore the noise, keep investing regularly, and your future self will thank you for it.
That is my strategy, anyway.
If I were 65 or 70 I may have a different view.
Almost 73 here... (and I agree with those points)
The stuff trump has thrown on the table--tariffs, further tax changes, (possibly mass) deportations--seems scary bad, but I've heard a talking head or two suggest that for tariffs, he'll be for them until he isn't. And kind of the same for anything else he talks about.
It depends too on the congressional outcome--whether the power balance there tips to favor what trump might do, or if it tips the other way and attenuates that.
captainspoke wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 8:08 am
Fingers crossed.
I think one potential danger to the markets next week is if Trump loses by a small margin. I doubt he would accept it, and anything could happen after that. If there's one thing markets don't like it's uncertainty, so we should be prepared for a risk-off crash or correction in that event until things are resolved. And by "prepared" I mean brace ourselves, not sell things in anticipation of it! Let's hope for the best.
I think a delayed election fault would cause a small sell-off but nothing too serious - a low single digits %. Not enough to prepare to back up the truck and load up on heavily discounted equities.
I think markets will also sell off if Harris wins. Equities have gone some way into pricing in a reduction in corporate taxes that Trump promised. These won’t materialize under Harris
captainspoke wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 8:08 am
Fingers crossed.
I think one potential danger to the markets next week is if Trump loses by a small margin. I doubt he would accept it, and anything could happen after that. If there's one thing markets don't like it's uncertainty, so we should be prepared for a risk-off crash or correction in that event until things are resolved. And by "prepared" I mean brace ourselves, not sell things in anticipation of it! Let's hope for the best.
Well, I guess we woke up to a new president. Not only the Electoral College but also the popular vote. At least there were no accusations of foreign interference or Vote manipulation.
There was also a huge bump on the S&P500.
captainspoke wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 8:08 am
Fingers crossed.
I think one potential danger to the markets next week is if Trump loses by a small margin. I doubt he would accept it, and anything could happen after that. If there's one thing markets don't like it's uncertainty, so we should be prepared for a risk-off crash or correction in that event until things are resolved. And by "prepared" I mean brace ourselves, not sell things in anticipation of it! Let's hope for the best.
Well, I guess we wake up to a new president. Not only the electoral college but also the popular vote.
There was also a huge bump on the S&P500.
I have been slowly moving most of my Emaxis Slim All Country (taxable account only) into TYO -1655 in preparation for filling my 2025 Nisa. I also wanted the cash to be more accessible as I close on my new home. Almost done.
I chose that ETF as it is more liquid, and easy to buy with its small share price. So far, so good.
Watz Harris's running mate is reported to have no investments and doesn't own his home despite his decent salary. The mind boggles that he could have been on the top table deciding people's financial futures.
I guess he is a potential client for Ben's investment workshop thing.
Swimmer wrote: ↑Thu Nov 07, 2024 7:38 am
Watz Harris's running mate is reported to have no investments and doesn't own his home despite his decent salary. The mind boggles that he could have been on the top table deciding people's financial futures.
I guess he is a potential client for Ben's investment workshop thing.
He should have some free time now too
English teacher and writer. RetireJapan founder. Avid reader.
