RetireJapan

Gulliver wrote: ↑Sat Oct 22, 2022 3:23 am Hmm. I’m pretty sure I’ve never discouraged long-term investing. I’m not sure where you’re getting that. In fact, that’s how I acquired most of my wealth. I am in the retirement phase of my portfolio allocation, however. Maybe that’s what’s confounding you? Wealth preservation is relevant to me at this point. Long-term investing is not incompatible with allocation adjustments. Maybe reread my above posts I think I explained my reasoning fairly thoroughly.

Fair enough. To answer your question, I guess it was more two things, first, the "this time it's different" justifications you were bringing up. Historically, "this time it's different" thinking is always how investors shoot themselves in the foot, whether it's a bubble or a recession. Everything I've read emphasizes the need to avoid that kind of thinking. Second, your dismissal of one of the above posts for "looking at 20yr rolling returns". That's why I asked your age. Thanks for clarifying you're already retired, which yes, does shed light on your perspective a bit more, but even if you're in your 60's, 20yrs+ is likely your investment horizon. Everything I've read on investing emphasizes the importance of keeping a long-term horizon, as short-term movements are inherently volatile and unpredictable, while long-term they actually aren't much of either.