RetireJapan

Amidst all this talk on market timing, I just did my monthly investment portfolio update, and it turns out March 2022 was by far the best month (10%+) I've seen since I started my own regular tracking. Doing nothing just gave me 10% in just 30 days. Who'd have predicted that? Not many, I'd venture. Trying to time the market is a fool's game, just get in. The length of time in the market is ALWAYS the best indicator of success.

mighty58 wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:14 am Amidst all this talk on market timing, I just did my monthly investment portfolio update, and it turns out March 2022 was by far the best month (10%+) I've seen since I started my own regular tracking. Doing nothing just gave me 10% in just 30 days. Who'd have predicted that? Not many, I'd venture. Trying to time the market is a fool's game, just get in. The length of time in the market is ALWAYS the best indicator of success.

Do you measure your investments in yen?

adamu wrote: ↑Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:59 am Do you measure your investments in yen?

I know what exactly what you're hinting at, but there are always factors to point to (after the fact!) to explain past performance/dips. The point is that these movements, and the level of impact they will have, are inherently unpredictable beforehand. Ergo, get in and stay in.

Continuing the DCA Challenge

Third Month of my 2 year experiment to test whether a Single Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging is the better strategy right now, starting the End of Jan 2022...

The VOO issued its Quarterly Dividend 0n 24 Mar 2022 of $1.374, which after Japan Dividend Taxes of 20.315% netted to $1.095 which I calculated as being reinvested into the VOO...

LSI

We commited you to Y200,000 invested in the S&P 500 VOO at price, 412.52 on Sat 05 Feb 22
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO?p=VOO

We know your Average Price. It's 05 Feb 22 price, $412.52 x 05 Feb 22 USDJPY 115.18 = Y47,514.0536
We know how many units you have. It's Y200,000 / 05 Feb 22 USDJPY 115.18 / 05 Feb 22 price, $412.52 = 4.209 Units.

05-Feb-2022 Y200,000 / USDJPY 115.18 / price $412.52 = 4.209 Units.

Dividend Net of Tax Reinvested:
25-Mar-2022 $1.0948 x 4.209 Units / price $416.12 = 0.011 Units

05-Apr-2022 Total Units: 4.22

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
4.209 Units x 05 Mar 22 USDJPY 114.78 x 05 Mar 22 price, $397.34 = Y191,958.538 = -4.02%

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
4.22 Units x 05 Apr 22 USDJPY 122.562 x 05 Apr 22 price, $416.32 = Y215,325.55 = +7.66%

DCA

And I will put my Y200,000 cash into the S&P500 VOO starting 05 Feb 22, Y10,000, and Y10,000 on the 5th. day of every month (or the previous working day) for the next 19 months, and then, at the end of January 2024 we compare the result.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO?p=VOO

05-Feb-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 115.18 / price 412.52 = 0.2104 Units.
05-Feb-2022 Y190,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Feb-2022 Total 0.2104 Units

05-Mar-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 114.78 / price 397.34 = 0.219 Units
05-Mar-2022 Y180,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Mar-2022 Total 0.4294 Units

Dividend Net of Tax Reinvested:

25-Mar-2022 $1.0948 x 0.4294 Units / price $416.12 = 0.0011 Units


05-Apr-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 122.562 / price 416.32 = 0.196 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y170,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 0.6265 Units


Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
0.4294 Units x USDJPY 114.78 x Price, $397.34 + 180,000 = Y199,583.51 = -0.2082%


Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
0.6265 Units x USDJPY 122.562 x Price $ 416.32 + 170,000 = Y201,967.17 = +0.98%


And a third scenario:

My Alter Ego will one day decide to invest another Y200,000 Lump-Sum at the time of my choosing, sometime between now and the end of January 2024. Until then, the Y200,000 of dry powder sits in the bank at 0% Interest...

I will give advanced notice, so you would not be able to accuse me of hind-sight...

Not Yet.


Or how about eMAXIS Slim全世界株式(オール･カントリー), as this is so popular...
https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/0331418A
eMAXIS Slim 全世界株式（オール・カントリー）は分配金を出していません。
No Dividends are paid out.

LSI

We commited you to Y200,000 invested in the eMaxis at 05 Feb 22 price, Y16,093.
We know your Average Price. It's 05 Feb 22 price, Y16,093
We know how many units you have. It's Y200,000 / 05 Feb 22 price, 16,093 = 12.42776 Units.

05-Feb-2022 Y200,000 / price Y16,093 = 12.42776 Units.

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price, Y15,547 = Y193,214.38 = -3.39%

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price Y17,110 = Y212,638.9736 = +6.32%

DCA

And I will put my Y200,000 cash into the eMaxis Slim AW starting 05 Feb 22, Y10,000, and Y10,000 on the 5th. day of every month (or the previous working day) for the next 19 months, and then, at the end of January 2024 we compare the result.

05-Feb-2022 Y10,000 / price Y16,093 = 0.62138 Units.
05-Feb-2022 Y190,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Feb-2022 Total 0.62138 Units

05-Mar-2022 Y10,000 / price Y15,547 = 0.64321 Units
05-Mar-2022 Y180,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Mar-2022 Total 1.26459 Units

05-Apr-2022 Y10,000 / price Y17,110 = 0.58445 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y170,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 1.84904 Units


Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
1.26459 Units x Price, Y15,547 + 180,000 = Y199,660.59 = -0.1697%

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
1.84904 Units x Price Y17,110 + 170,000 = Y201,637.135 = +0.8185%

And again, the third scenario:

My Alter Ego will one day decide to invest another Y200,000 Lump-Sum at the time of my choosing, sometime between now and the end of January 2024. Until then, the Y200,000 of dry powder sits in the bank at 0% Interest...

I will commit to making this investment when the Shiller S&P P/E falls to a more reasonable level, and I will give advanced notice, so you would not be able to accuse me of hind-sight...

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Not Yet

Continuing the DCA Challenge

Fourth Month (May) of my 2 year experiment to test whether a Single Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging is the better strategy right now, starting the End of Jan 2022...

The VOO issued its Quarterly Dividend 0n 24 Mar 2022 of $1.374, which after Japan Dividend Taxes of 20.315% netted to $1.095 which I calculated as being reinvested into the VOO...

LSI

We commited you to Y200,000 invested in the S&P 500 VOO at price, 412.52 on Sat 05 Feb 22
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO?p=VOO

We know your Average Price. It's 05 Feb 22 price, $412.52 x 05 Feb 22 USDJPY 115.18 = Y47,514.0536
We know how many units you have. It's Y200,000 / 05 Feb 22 USDJPY 115.18 / 05 Feb 22 price, $412.52 = 4.209 Units.

05-Feb-2022 Y200,000 / USDJPY 115.18 / price $412.52 = 4.209 Units.

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
4.209 Units x 05 Mar 22 USDJPY 114.78 x 05 Mar 22 price, $397.34 = Y191,958.538 = -4.02%

Dividend Net of Tax Reinvested:
25-Mar-2022 $1.0948 x 4.209 Units / price $416.12 = 0.011 Units

05-Apr-2022 Total Units: 4.22

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
4.22 Units x 05 Apr 22 USDJPY 122.562 x 05 Apr 22 price, $416.32 = Y215,325.55 = +7.66%

Value as of 05-May-2022:
4.22 Units x 05 May 22 USDJPY 129.771 x 05 May 22 price, $394.34 = Y215,953.84 = +7.98%


DCA

And I will put my Y200,000 cash into the S&P500 VOO starting 05 Feb 22, Y10,000, and Y10,000 on the 5th. day of every month (or the previous working day) for the next 19 months, and then, at the end of January 2024 we compare the result.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO?p=VOO

05-Feb-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 115.18 / price 412.52 = 0.2104 Units.
05-Feb-2022 Y190,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Feb-2022 Total 0.2104 Units

05-Mar-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 114.78 / price 397.34 = 0.219 Units
05-Mar-2022 Y180,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Mar-2022 Total 0.4294 Units

Dividend Net of Tax Reinvested:
25-Mar-2022 $1.0948 x 0.4294 Units / price $416.12 = 0.0011 Units

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
0.4294 Units x USDJPY 114.78 x Price, $397.34 + 180,000 = Y199,583.51 = -0.2082%

05-Apr-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 122.562 / price 416.32 = 0.196 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y170,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 0.6265 Units

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
0.6265 Units x USDJPY 122.562 x Price $ 416.32 + 170,000 = Y201,967.17 = +0.98%

05-May-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 129.771 / price 394.34 = 0.1954 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y160,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 0.8219.... Units

Value as of 05-May-2022:
0.8219 Units x USDJPY 129.771 x Price $ 394.34 + 160,000 = Y202,059.825 = +1.03%


And a third scenario:

My Alter Ego will one day decide to invest another Y200,000 Lump-Sum at the time of my choosing, sometime between now and the end of January 2024. Until then, the Y200,000 of dry powder sits in the bank at 0% Interest...

I will give advanced notice, so you would not be able to accuse me of hind-sight...

Not Yet. Currently planning August 2022. Subject to change...


Or how about eMAXIS Slim全世界株式(オール･カントリー), as this is so popular...
https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/0331418A
eMAXIS Slim 全世界株式（オール・カントリー）は分配金を出していません。
No Dividends are paid out.

LSI

We commited you to Y200,000 invested in the eMaxis at 05 Feb 22 price, Y16,093.
We know your Average Price. It's 05 Feb 22 price, Y16,093
We know how many units you have. It's Y200,000 / 05 Feb 22 price, 16,093 = 12.42776 Units.

05-Feb-2022 Y200,000 / price Y16,093 = 12.42776 Units.

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price, Y15,547 = Y193,214.38 = -3.39%

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price Y17,110 = Y212,638.9736 = +6.32%

Value as of 05-May-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price Y16,561 = Y205,816.13 = +2.9%

DCA

And I will put my Y200,000 cash into the eMaxis Slim AW starting 05 Feb 22, Y10,000, and Y10,000 on the 5th. day of every month (or the previous working day) for the next 19 months, and then, at the end of January 2024 we compare the result.

05-Feb-2022 Y10,000 / price Y16,093 = 0.62138 Units.
05-Feb-2022 Y190,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Feb-2022 Total 0.62138 Units

Value as of 05-Feb-2022:
0.62138 Units x Price, Y16,093 + 190,000 = Y200,000 = 0%

05-Mar-2022 Y10,000 / price Y15,547 = 0.64321 Units
05-Mar-2022 Y180,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Mar-2022 Total 1.26459 Units

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
1.26459 Units x Price, Y15,547 + 180,000 = Y199,660.59 = -0.1697%

05-Apr-2022 Y10,000 / price Y17,110 = 0.58445 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y170,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 1.84904 Units

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
1.84904 Units x Price Y17,110 + 170,000 = Y201,637.135 = +0.8185%

05-May-2022 Y10,000 / price Y16,561 = 0.6038 Units
05-May-2022 Y160,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-May-2022 Total 2.4528 Units

Value as of 05-May-2022:
2.4528 Units x Price Y16,561 + 160,000 = Y200,621.9514 = +0.311%


And again, the third scenario:

My Alter Ego will one day decide to invest another Y200,000 Lump-Sum at the time of my choosing, sometime between now and the end of January 2024. Until then, the Y200,000 of dry powder sits in the bank at 0% Interest...

I will commit to making this investment when the Shiller S&P P/E falls to a more reasonable level, and I will give advanced notice, so you would not be able to accuse me of hind-sight...

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Not Yet. Currently planning on August 2022. Subject to change...

Watch This Space...

Tkydon wrote: ↑Sat May 07, 2022 7:59 am

Just out of curiosity, have you set reminders on your calendar to make these calculations?

Yes, LoL

Continuing the DCA Challenge

Fifth Month (May) of my 2 year experiment to test whether a Single Lump Sum or Dollar Cost Averaging is the better strategy right now, starting the End of Jan 2022...

The VOO issued its Quarterly Dividend 0n 24 Mar 2022 of $1.374, which after Japan Dividend Taxes of 20.315% netted to $1.095 which I calculated as being reinvested into the VOO...

LSI

We commited Lump Sum of Y200,000 invested in the S&P 500 VOO at price, 412.52 on Sat 05 Feb 22
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO?p=VOO

We know the Average Price. It's 05 Feb 22 price, $412.52 x 05 Feb 22 USDJPY 115.18 = Y47,514.0536
We know how many units there are. Y200,000 / 05 Feb 22 USDJPY 115.18 / 05 Feb 22 price, $412.52 = 4.209 Units.

05-Feb-2022 Y200,000 / USDJPY 115.18 / price $412.52 = 4.209 Units.

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
4.209 Units x 05 Mar 22 USDJPY 114.78 x 05 Mar 22 price, $397.34 = Y191,958.538 = -4.02%

Dividend Net of Tax Reinvested:
25-Mar-2022 $1.0948 x 4.209 Units / price $416.12 = 0.011 Units

05-Apr-2022 Total Units: 4.22

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
4.22 Units x 05 Apr 22 USDJPY 122.562 x 05 Apr 22 price, $416.32 = Y215,325.55 = +7.66%

Value as of 05-May-2022:
4.22 Units x 05 May 22 USDJPY 129.771 x 05 May 22 price, $394.34 = Y215,953.84 = +7.98%

Value as of 05-June-2022:
4.22 Units x 05 June 22 USDJPY 130.860 x 05 June 22 price, $ 377.44 = Y208,433.39 = +4.217%


DCA

And I will put my Y200,000 cash into the S&P500 VOO starting 05 Feb 22, Y10,000, and Y10,000 on the 5th. day of every month (or the previous working day) for the next 19 months, and then, at the end of January 2024 we compare the result.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/VOO?p=VOO

05-Feb-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 115.18 / price 412.52 = 0.2104 Units.
05-Feb-2022 Y190,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Feb-2022 Total 0.2104 Units

05-Mar-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 114.78 / price 397.34 = 0.219 Units
05-Mar-2022 Y180,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Mar-2022 Total 0.4294 Units

Dividend Net of Tax Reinvested:
25-Mar-2022 $1.0948 x 0.4294 Units / price $416.12 = 0.0011 Units

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
0.4294 Units x USDJPY 114.78 x Price, $397.34 + 180,000 = Y199,583.51 = -0.2082%

05-Apr-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 122.562 / price 416.32 = 0.196 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y170,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 0.6265 Units

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
0.6265 Units x USDJPY 122.562 x Price $ 416.32 + 170,000 = Y201,967.17 = +0.98%

05-May-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 129.771 / price 394.34 = 0.1954 Units
05-May-2022 Y160,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-May-2022 Total 0.8219 Units

Value as of 05-May-2022:
0.8219 Units x USDJPY 129.771 x Price $ 394.34 + 160,000 = Y202,059.825 = +1.03%

05-June-2022 Y10,000 / USDJPY 130.860 / price 377.44 = 0.2024 Units
05-June-2022 Y150,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-June-2022 Total 1.0243 Units

Value as of 05-June-2022:
1.0243 Units x USDJPY 130.860 x Price $377.44 + 150,000 = Y200,595.119 = +0.2975%


And a third scenario:

My Alter Ego will one day decide to invest another Y200,000 Lump-Sum at the time of my choosing, sometime between now and the end of January 2024. Until then, the Y200,000 of dry powder sits in the bank at 0% Interest...

I will give advanced notice, so you would not be able to accuse me of hind-sight...

Not Yet. Currently planning August/September 2022. Subject to change...


Or how about eMAXIS Slim全世界株式(オール･カントリー), as this is so popular...
https://finance.yahoo.co.jp/quote/0331418A
eMAXIS Slim 全世界株式（オール・カントリー）は分配金を出していません。
No Dividends are paid out.

LSI

We commited Lump Sum of Y200,000 invested in the eMaxis at 05 Feb 22 price, Y16,093.
We know the Average Price. It's 05 Feb 22 price, Y16,093
We know how many units there are. It's Y200,000 / 05 Feb 22 price, 16,093 = 12.42776 Units.

05-Feb-2022 Y200,000 / price Y16,093 = 12.42776 Units.

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price, Y15,547 = Y193,214.38 = -3.39%

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price Y17,110 = Y212,638.9736 = +6.32%

Value as of 05-May-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price Y16,561 = Y205,816.13 = +2.9%

Value as of 05-June-2022:
12.42776 Units x Price Y16,799 = Y208,773.94 = +4387%


DCA

And I will put my Y200,000 cash into the eMaxis Slim AW starting 05 Feb 22, Y10,000, and Y10,000 on the 5th. day of every month (or the previous working day) for the next 19 months, and then, at the end of January 2024 we compare the result.

05-Feb-2022 Y10,000 / price Y16,093 = 0.62138 Units.
05-Feb-2022 Y190,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Feb-2022 Total 0.62138 Units

Value as of 05-Feb-2022:
0.62138 Units x Price, Y16,093 + 190,000 = Y200,000 = 0%

05-Mar-2022 Y10,000 / price Y15,547 = 0.64321 Units
05-Mar-2022 Y180,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Mar-2022 Total 1.26459 Units

Value as of 05-Mar-2022:
1.26459 Units x Price, Y15,547 + 180,000 = Y199,660.59 = -0.1697%

05-Apr-2022 Y10,000 / price Y17,110 = 0.58445 Units
05-Apr-2022 Y170,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-Apr-2022 Total 1.84904 Units

Value as of 05-Apr-2022:
1.84904 Units x Price Y17,110 + 170,000 = Y201,637.135 = +0.8185%

05-May-2022 Y10,000 / price Y16,561 = 0.6038 Units
05-May-2022 Y160,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-May-2022 Total 2.4528 Units

Value as of 05-May-2022:
2.4528 Units x Price Y16,561 + 160,000 = Y200,621.9514 = +0.311%

05-June-2022 Y10,000 / price Y16,799 = 0.5952 Units
05-June-2022 Y150,000 in the bank at 0% Interest.
05-May-2022 Total 3.048 Units

Value as of 05-June-2022:
3.048 Units x Price Y16,799 + 150,000 = Y201,204.5872 = +0.6023%


And again, the third scenario:

My Alter Ego will one day decide to invest another Y200,000 Lump-Sum at the time of my choosing, sometime between now and the end of January 2024. Until then, the Y200,000 of dry powder sits in the bank at 0% Interest...

I will commit to making this investment when the Shiller S&P P/E falls to a more reasonable level, and I will give advanced notice, so you would not be able to accuse me of hind-sight...

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Not Yet. Currently planning on August/September 2022. Subject to change...

Watch This Space...

Tkydon wrote: ↑Tue Jun 07, 2022 1:21 am

looks like the lumpsum approach is going to go down this month, right?

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Sat Feb 05, 2022 8:38 am So I was drinking my coffee, and reading about DCA which I do, but I try to keep some cash just in case.
So we mostly seem to agree DCA is great. (No?)

And it got me thinking, instead of dumping say 200,000 into the s&p in one go during the dip (which many say isn’t the best idea) why not just increase the frequency of DCA, for say the next few weeks/months DURING THE DIP.
This in theory would balance out the buying the dip. Giving us the advantages of buying during the dip but not the risk of a single large payment .
What’s good in the good time, might be better in the bad time.( s&p500)

I can’t find any articles on this, but the idea of buying when others are selling, and just being boring, when everyone is going crazy over something eg Tesla, Bitcoin.
Loads of articles on DCA but not much on doing the same on doing this during the dip. Everyone seems to talk about “The DIp”. Merry

Folks tend to make this much more complicated than it needs to be. Especially when we are talking about index funds such as the S&P 500 which I already have certain amount of risk management baked into them. This chart may help:

So basically the two indicators we need to watch for are:

1. The average decline from the previous peak- which in our case would be approximately 3400.

2. The median decline- which in our case would be approximately 3650.

And before you get all huffy puffy about me trying convince people to time the market, I am not. Everyone’s financial situation is unique and they should do what they’re comfortable with.

In my case I will consider DCA of the profits I made by selling during this winter‘s peak when the S&P hits approximately 3650 (this has nothing to do with my retirement account which is an entirely different matter). If it falls to 3400 I will consider some “lump sum” purchases.

If prices never get that low, it’s no skin off my back because the money had already made a profit.

Also, remember that there’s usually a lag of several months between an average low and its upturn. At this point panic selling may result in even lower numbers in which case a DCA scenario would be an advantage.