RetireJapan

Rezz wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:02 am

eyeswideshut wrote: ↑Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:11 pm ...and, immediately after I put some more money into the stock market we are down another 5% and officially into a bear market. Italy is in complete shut-down and my company has asked everyone to work from home. I plan to keep buying all the way down but this is getting crazy.

This is exactly what happened to me last night My fourth investment so far during this rollercoaster dip over the last month or so. I had quite a bit of cash saved back that I had been meaning to invest for a while. I've already used about 70% of it, but now I'm feeling slight paralysis as to when I should drop the rest in.

Once the market dropped 10% I start placing orders on a weekly basis and will keep buying equal amounts in accordance with my desired asset allocation until my spare cash is gone. It is a painful process. I will never time the bottom and there is a good chance I will run out of cash prior to the bottom but at least I can take solace in the fact I was not buying at the top. Maybe you can develop a weekly or monthly cadence to get the rest of your money back into the market? Otherwise you will never 'feel' it is the right time.

U.S. cancels all flights coming from Europe and the futures go into freefall. We're in bear territory now.
Nikkei dropped another 4%.

deepdishj wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 am U.S. cancels all flights coming from Europe and the futures go into freefall. We're in bear territory now.
Nikkei dropped another 4%.

This has to cause a global recession - I see no way around it. I predict a wave of bankruptcies coming in travel and oil-related industries over the next few weeks with knock-on effects to banking and finance later.

I'm not sure yet if it's just passenger flights or includes commercial goods. Trump's announcement wasn't clear on that.

Update: the White House announced that Trump's statement about the ban applying to" trade and cargo" was an error.

So its a good time to add a bulk payment into my daughters Junior NISA? Not sure how much longer I can wait to see how low the market will go.

I'm just going to avoid even looking at my account until it's time to make the next regular investment

adamu wrote: ↑Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:50 pm I'm just going to avoid even looking at my account until it's time to make the next regular investment

I made the mistake of looking... we're down at least 5 million yen since yesterday

Fortunately I seem to have read enough investing books. Those numbers bother me not one bit.

One thing to consider for your taxable accounts during this downturn. Tax loss harvesting in a “tokutei” Japanese account will mean that the capital loss is subtracted from your dividend income at the end of the year and you get the 20.315% of tax that was withheld refunded to your account during the last week of December. Japan doesn’t really have a wash sale rule so you could buy back the position (depending on your brokerage account policy) in 5 days or even less. If you are a US citizen the IRS will still apply wash sale rules so you can’t buy something “substantially identical” within 30 days (but there’s a lot of leeway, for instance VOO isn’t identical to VTI even though they behave nearly the same). I know it hurts but do take a look at your account s and see if there’s an opportunity for tax loss harvesting while still effectively staying in the market.

Another huge chunk off overnight it seems. I think I may actually avoid looking at rakuten this time too...

Amazing over-night collapse. More than stocks, I am very worried about how badly bonds are doing. Both my bond funds are also down 2-3% IN ONE SESSION which may be more to do with currency fluctuations but is still highly concerning. Also gold is down 3-4%. There are no safe places besides cash and toilet paper hoarding.

That said, I purchased more stocks overnight and I plan to keep buying over the coming weeks. It feels like taking 1 man Yen bills and lighting them on fire but I have faith that stocks will recover in the long run.