RetireJapan

tim wrote: ↑Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:40 am I need your thoughts

I bought a stock and now its 30% down.
I'm thinking of like selling it and buy it when it goes lower like 40% or 50% or more from my initial position, is this a good idea?
with the thinking that the stock will grow in the 1 to 2 years from my initial position.

There is something called "Tax Loss Harvesting"

If you have gains and losses, you could sell both and cancel the gains with the losses, netting zero. You can only use Capital Losses against Capital Gains in Japan, and not against other income.

If you have more losses than you can absorb in this tax year, you can roll the losses over for three years, so 2023, 2024, and 2025.

As others said, without knowing any details it is almost impossible to comment further.

Not Japanese, but you can get the idea here....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWjXTfA0x5I

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10RUvIHUdT8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBK_s5hsJzY

tim wrote: ↑Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:40 am I need your thoughts

I bought a stock and now its 30% down.
I'm thinking of like selling it and buy it when it goes lower like 40% or 50% or more from my initial position, is this a good idea?
with the thinking that the stock will grow in the 1 to 2 years from my initial position.

This is a good way to lose money, because if the stock doesn't go down 40% or 50%, not presenting that desired opportunity to buy it back cheaper than what you are contemplating to sell it for, instead going back up without you invested in it any longer, you will feel stink about that. (You might get lucky, but then repeat the experience and then not get lucky next time)

I would propose the following ideas:
1) If you think it will eventually recover, why not hold it for the long term? Is it a good long term investment?
2) If you think it will not recover within an acceptable time frame for you, sell it, and try to learn something from the experience.

Due to my prior employment circumstances, I originally started out as a speculator myself (not in stocks), and over the years, was lucky to make some extra money with that. But I lost a bit too from time to time, that's for sure! If you feel the urge to try to be a speculator, you will benefit by cutting your losses when necessary. Losing money sucks but your money is scarce and could be put elsewhere to make money instead of lose more value.
When you buy something speculatively in the first instance, you should have an idea of how far the price would go against you at which point you would bail, and find something better to do with that money.

(I still do a bit of speculation myself, but see it as more of a risky hobby - now 90% of my investments is in broad-based indexes and I don't think about price at all, just asset allocations.)

Thank you guys for the insights
Highly appreciated

As for my actions,
Ill keep the stock and add more when the price is right instead.
as for the stock that I mentioned, its Amazon.

tim wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 9:32 am Thank you guys for the insights
Highly appreciated

As for my actions,
Ill keep the stock and add more when the price is right instead.
as for the stock that I mentioned, its Amazon.

What factors are you using? Purely stock price?

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/amzn/valuation

TokyoBoglehead wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:50 am What factors are you using? Purely stock price?

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/amzn/valuation

My thinking is that because of Inflation/Recession demand will decrease, so I was thinking that Amazon's stock price will also decrease,
and as inflation becomes more stable the demand will rise as well.

tim wrote: ↑Mon Dec 19, 2022 1:57 am

TokyoBoglehead wrote: ↑Sat Dec 17, 2022 11:50 am What factors are you using? Purely stock price?

https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/xnas/amzn/valuation

My thinking is that because of Inflation/Recession demand will decrease, so I was thinking that Amazon's stock price will also decrease,
and as inflation becomes more stable the demand will rise as well.

With all the respect in the world, I think that thesis is far too simplistic.

Might I suggest sticking with index funds for the moment? Perhaps paper trading, or actively trading with only 10%, or less, of your invested income might be a good idea.

See the Value Investment viewpoint on Amazon here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QqE8iDuESW0&t=5s

Skip the first 22 seconds...

Need help
I just realized that I need to report my tax returns for the current year, and I have already filed my return without including any information in the Miscellaneous Income section, which is indicated as required in my account. Should I take any action to rectify this situation?


Thanks, in advance.

When you buy and sell emaxis slim, at which point the price is fixed? I know it doesn't make sense trying to time the market with index funds but can't help wondering.

zak wrote: ↑Mon May 29, 2023 2:42 pm When you buy and sell emaxis slim, at which point the price is fixed? I know it doesn't make sense trying to time the market with index funds but can't help wondering.

On the 約定日 but you can't choose the price. Usually you say what you will pay and you get whatever that buys you on the day. I believe there's a way to specify a number of units instead, but I've never tried it. The 約定日 is usually the next working day after you order, but it's not guaranteed to be.