IloveJapan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:21 pm
Thank you Kuma for your interesting account and comments!
You're welcome!
IloveJapan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:21 pm
Years ago, I came across the old 16, 17 and 18 years rule you commented on, and I had noticed that I too had about 4 years of contributions even though I greatly lacked full time work experience in the UK. I DID go on to further education and university. However, at the same time during those years I had a huge variety of things like part time jobs, weekend jobs, and internships. So I thought, well, those NI contributions could easily come from those activities too. Though frankly, god knows which of those involved contributions…so I don’t really know if my contribution years stem from work or are education related.
So, at least 1 qualifying year is from contributions made while working, given that the starting credits would cover a maximum of 3 years (unless credits have been applied for other reasons; but your post indicates multiple jobs during this period). Such a history might be in with a shot of Class 2 qualification.
The first of the possible years for starting credits is the tax year in which you turned 16, so for some this would fall wholly within a year of compulsory schooling (Sept-March birthday; turn 16 during Y11 of school and this falls within a tax year prior to leaving compulsory schooling) and for others it would fall partially within a year of compulsory schooling (Apr-Aug birthday, turn 16 towards the end of Y11, within a tax year which spans compulsory schooling and some post-compulsory school time), so many of the cohort would have qualified for the first year of starting credits, even if marching off to work as soon as school finished. So I suspect there is a component of a potential 'government gift' in your case, even though you undertook lots of different jobs.
IloveJapan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:21 pm
I too actually found out about the “frozen” feature recently, during the Brexit disputes in which the UK and EU were having heated discussions and social security issues came up. I accept though that people living abroad are more likely to know about it (though to be honest the people I have met don’t).
Other than cases like the Rees-Mogg children, I imagine most of us are at an information deficit, or were at some point. The founder of this site was, too, back in the day. I certainly was, and in some respects still am. By reading and posting on this forum, we've taken steps to better our knowledge and financial future. Yes, the frozen pension policy may not be universally or even widely known. I'm trying to make the distinction between those who spent their working lives in the UK then migrated and those who moved abroad after a limited amount of work in the UK. The latter group is prevalent on the forum, and are in many cases able to decide whether or not to contribute to a second state pension in addition to one from their country of residence, and their qualification for this second pension would in many cases be through voluntary rather than mandatory contributions; a markedly different set of circumstances to the former group. We're doubly fortunate; armed with both knowledge and time to make provisions for our future.
IloveJapan wrote: ↑Tue Jan 07, 2025 12:21 pm
No-one knows what the future holds for inflation, but inflation has been present through most of history so I expect it to be there in my retirement years too. It has re-emerged in Japan as well, so I believe the Japanese pension payments will rise more in future. Regarding the UK, I read somewhere that inflation there has averaged around 4% since the war. So if we extrapolated that 4% into the future, then using the rule of 72, a UK-based person with a frozen pension (no, don’t laugh, I know it’s impossible!) would likely see their pension decline by half in purchasing power terms over around 18 years if that pension did not increase.
Yes, a frozen pension will erode in value in the case where the cost of living rises in the place of residence/expenditure but the 'cost of living adjustment' (ie uprating) has not been applied.
And very true that we don't know what the future holds for inflation; also true that we can make educated guesses re trends etc, but they remain just that.
But another angle is to say that we do know the past. I think I read on one of your post that you've been in Japan for about 30 years (apologies if wrong); if so, the 1995 pension situation (give or take) makes for an interesting comparison.
Back then, the UK state pension paid out 58.85pw*. In 2023, 156.20pw.
* Adjusted to 2023 UK prices (latest available in the main gov.uk dataset:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... stics-2023) this equates to about 150pw.
So, in raw terms, the UK state pension has multiplied from 58.85pw (1995) to 156.20pw (2023). But in real terms it has remained pretty static
for those residing in the UK, where the UK cost of living is relevant (150pw ish to 156pw ish).
However, we in Japan have been living in a much different inflationary landscape.
At the macroeconomic level, inflation in Japan is measured here (first search engine source; not selected as especially authoratative):
https://www.rateinflation.com/inflation ... tion-rate/
Some years have been 0%; some years have been negative; some years have been positive; reports (sorry, no sources cited) hint that inflation is becoming 'a thing' here in recent times.
At the day to day level, I think it is fair to say that 100 yen (plus tax) gets you high quality goods at Daiso today, just as it did 30 years ago. (Though this is apparantly changing; again apologies no sources cited.)
Given that UK inflation exceeded Japanese inflation over the period 1995-present, and that UK uprating during this period is applicable to former UK residents currently resident in Japan, it could be argued that such people have 'locked in' 30 years of cost of living increases
without having been subject to those UK levels of cost of living increases, ie in 'real terms', their pension has gained significant value. This might mitigate erosion of the value of the pension when drawing it. (Winners and losers of this; some former UK residents live in countries which have experienced hyperinflation; ouch!)
For a point of reference, in 1995, the basic component of the Japan state pension paid out 786,000, which is pretty much parity in
raw terms compared to the current level. If one considers macroecomomic inflation, one could say the Japan pension payout has eroded over this 30yr period.
Also, irrespective of the annual upratings, the (base? original?) UK pension rate is/was calibrated according to UK cost of living. Someone drawing it in Monaco* (high average cost of living) will probably have a different experience of how far it goes compared to someone drawing it in Laos (low average cost of living).
* Possibly that Monaco-resident pensioner would engage in a weekly cross-border stroll to France on the day of the week their pension is due, so as to be eligible to 'temporarily' uprate their pension on a permanent basis; one of the easier frozen->unfrozen temporary uprating opportunities in the world (Palestine->Israel less so...); but presumably if wealthy enough to retire in Monaco, said pensioner may not elect not to engage in the hassle of applying for temporary uprating of the UK state pension on a repeated cycle.
[/quote]