RetireJapan

Japan can’t afford to buy military equipment due to the yen…

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/08/busi ... nding.html

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:51 am And in the likely scenario of a stock market crash and a strengthening yen I estimate we'll be down up to 70%

You seem like quite an optimistic person, usually... could you shed some light on why you think a stock market crash may be "likely"?

There is so much "fear porn" out there concerning global economics that I have tried to tune them out. Why live life under constant fear of losing your wealth... but if always-chipper-Ben is mentioning something about a "likely" crash....

**This is a serious question, and I am also serious about you usually being cheerful and optimistic.

I don't really feel a market crash is imminent, but probably most people would have said the same in 2007 and 2019.... these sort of events can't be foreseen by 99.99% of us. And those 0.01% might get one right but miss the others...

It is a fact of life that markets do suffer from undue optimism at times and undue pessimism at others. Best advice for most is to ignore all and keep up regular investments without thinking about it. Not checking the markets or one's own investments every week/month/quarter is sound advice for most.....

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 8:09 am I don't really feel a market crash is imminent, but probably most people would have said the same in 2007 and 2019.... these sort of events can't be foreseen by 99.99% of us. And those 0.01% might get one right but miss the others...

It is a fact of life that markets do suffer from undue optimism at times and undue pessimism at others. Best advice for most is to ignore all and keep up regular investments without thinking about it. Not checking the markets or one's own investments every week/month/quarter is sound advice for most.....

Or 2000 dot com bubble. I could never understand that,by just saying dot com on the end of your company, suddenly the companies values went up crazy amounts. Even though they never made a profit. I feel the same with AI. AI isn’t suddenly going to start making companies profitable or make money. Right now! The news hype is AI and yet only a few years ago we couldn’t stop hearing about NFTs or bitcoin off the TV.

cocacola wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 7:50 am

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 8:51 am And in the likely scenario of a stock market crash and a strengthening yen I estimate we'll be down up to 70%

You seem like quite an optimistic person, usually... could you shed some light on why you think a stock market crash may be "likely"?

There is so much "fear porn" out there concerning global economics that I have tried to tune them out. Why live life under constant fear of losing your wealth... but if always-chipper-Ben is mentioning something about a "likely" crash....

**This is a serious question, and I am also serious about you usually being cheerful and optimistic.

There is always a chance of a stock market crash, especially when markets are up as much as they are now. Now, I have no idea when this may happen, but it is likely to happen at some point.

In the past in times of economic uncertainty the yen has strengthened, which makes me think we might get the double whammy.

I don't see this as a bad thing, by the way. It will happen, and hopefully we will ignore it and then the stock market will recover and continue growing over time.

But if you are not expecting it you may panic and do something foolish, like selling your investments at a loss.

By imagining the worst case scenario you can 'practice' what you are going to do when something like that happens.

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 8:41 am Or 2000 dot com bubble. I could never understand that,by just saying dot com on the end of your company, suddenly the companies values went up crazy amounts. Even though they never made a profit. I feel the same with AI. AI isn’t suddenly going to start making companies profitable or make money. Right now! The news hype is AI and yet only a few years ago we couldn’t NFTs or bitcoin off the TV.

The really exciting techical innovations are CRDTs and local-first software. Much faster, more responsive apps that sync with each other, largely removing the server from the equation and ensuring they function even if the company goes bust. But by their nature they are the opposite of a walled-garden platform allowing investors to capture the value, leaving it with the users, so the news coverage is basically non-existant.

adamu wrote: ↑Tue Jul 09, 2024 4:18 am

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 8:41 am Or 2000 dot com bubble. I could never understand that,by just saying dot com on the end of your company, suddenly the companies values went up crazy amounts. Even though they never made a profit. I feel the same with AI. AI isn’t suddenly going to start making companies profitable or make money. Right now! The news hype is AI and yet only a few years ago we couldn’t NFTs or bitcoin off the TV.

The really exciting techical innovations are CRDTs and local-first software. Much faster, more responsive apps that sync with each other, largely removing the server from the equation and ensuring they function even if the company goes bust. .....

For the less IT Literate here. Can we just assume this is like the ending of The Lawn Mower Man...
All I care about recent technology developments is how they've destroyed my love of Dystopian Sci-fi movies.
Hard to sit enthralled at Gatacca whilst Chiba (That's Chiba with a "b"!) is deploying facial recognition at train station turnstiles..
That and linkedin looking more like a Chatgpt sourced hell space of double speak colliding with 'thingsthatdidnthappen'.

Oh. I tried (and failed) to get my family to vote for A.I. Mayor.
Because it's only a matter of time anyway. And the A,I. can be multi-lingual, ever present, etc. If it does result in some horrendous gaff or turns out to be inherently racist. Well. That's nothing new for the mayor of a mega city is it..