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Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:50 am
by Bubblegun
RetireJapan wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:37 am
Bubblegun wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:11 am
adamu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:22 am
I think the nature of black swan events is that you can't predict them, so the thread seems quite pointless
Oh, I don't know about that. We know they will happen, but just like predicting the stock market, we haven't a clue when they will happen.
Not to mention the idea of human psychology thinking what happened yesterday will be the same tomorrow. Maybe we do see them coming but collectively we often ignore the signals. Financial Bubbles,tulips,housing.dot com, come to mind, wars, pandemics, and appeasement come to mind. I think it was Mark Twain who once said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This means, that while the details change, circumstances change, settings change, and names change, similar events will essentially recycle. But it is quite pointless to "worry" about them.
Well, actually, 'Black Swan' events literally refer to things that come as a complete surprise:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
Yes, I understand that black swan events come as a surprise to the majority of people. I guess what I meant to say the "thread doesn't seem pointless. Throughout history, someone has seen or said something but they are often ignored, seen as alarmist or even have fringe views. From Roger Babson in the 20s to Churchill in the 30s, to Micheal Burry,200s and even up to today Nigel Farage and Brexit. So it's good we talk about them. I do personally see similarities between China and Taiwan, and the 1930s naval build-up, or even the 1980s Falklands. I hope it never goes hot though!
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:10 am
by captainspoke
Deep Blue wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 9:14 am
captainspoke wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:47 am
Taiwan's been mentioned, but not dprk.
Post 2!
I did too quick of a scan and missed that -- sorry!
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:14 am
by banders
OK, after reading this thread I'm going to pull the plug and increase my bond allocation.
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 7:00 am
by Bubblegun
banders wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 3:14 am
OK, after reading this thread I'm going to pull the plug and increase my bond allocation.
I was thinking of increasing my BOND allocation too.
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:09 am
by captainspoke
Well, we just had an earthquake here in ishikawa...
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:39 am
by adamu
captainspoke wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:09 am
Well, we just had an earthquake here in ishikawa...
Stay safe, Captain! That 5m tsunami warning is very concerning, here's hoping it doesn't come to fruition.
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:15 am
by captainspoke
adamu wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 9:39 am
captainspoke wrote: ↑Mon Jan 01, 2024 8:09 am
Well, we just had an earthquake here in ishikawa...
Stay safe, Captain! That 5m tsunami warning is very concerning, here's hoping it doesn't come to fruition.
Barring aftershocks (and there were a couple small ones), I think it's over. I did have to reset a couple things--push the right button on the gas meter outside, reset the boiler (hot water), same with the heaters. The initial water flow was
very rusty and brown, probably stuff shaken loose in our old pipes.
A couple very small/minor things fell, but trivial given the strength and duration. And, the wife's plan was to make tempura and kara-age for dinner, so it was fortunate that it happened before there was a pot of really hot oil on the stove. Instead, she just threw it all in the wok and it turned out fine, and easier cleanup and dishes, too.
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Mon Jan 01, 2024 10:23 am
by adamu
The 5m Tsunami warning is still in place, make sure you're away from that!
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:39 am
by Wales4rugbyWC23
Black swan event specific to Japan:
Ben not doing his weekly Monday post for Retire Japan.
Re: Black swan events specific to Japan
Posted: Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:58 am
by RetireJapan
Wales4rugbyWC23 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:39 am
Black swan event specific to Japan:
Ben not doing his weekly Monday post for Retire Japan.
