Black swan events specific to Japan

[Bubblegun]

I think the nature of black swan events is that you can't predict them, so the thread seems quite pointless

Oh, I don't know about that. We know they will happen, but just like predicting the stock market, we haven't a clue when they will happen.
Not to mention the idea of human psychology thinking what happened yesterday will be the same tomorrow. Maybe we do see them coming but collectively we often ignore the signals. Financial Bubbles,tulips,housing.dot com, come to mind, wars, pandemics, and appeasement come to mind. I think it was Mark Twain who once said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This means, that while the details change, circumstances change, settings change, and names change, similar events will essentially recycle. But it is quite pointless to "worry" about them.

Well, actually, 'Black Swan' events literally refer to things that come as a complete surprise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Yes, I understand that black swan events come as a surprise to the majority of people. I guess what I meant to say the "thread doesn't seem pointless. Throughout history, someone has seen or said something but they are often ignored, seen as alarmist or even have fringe views. From Roger Babson in the 20s to Churchill in the 30s, to Micheal Burry,200s and even up to today Nigel Farage and Brexit. So it's good we talk about them. I do personally see similarities between China and Taiwan, and the 1930s naval build-up, or even the 1980s Falklands. I hope it never goes hot though!

[captainspoke]

Taiwan's been mentioned, but not dprk.

Post 2!

I did too quick of a scan and missed that -- sorry!

[banders]

OK, after reading this thread I'm going to pull the plug and increase my bond allocation.

[Bubblegun]

OK, after reading this thread I'm going to pull the plug and increase my bond allocation.

I was thinking of increasing my BOND allocation too.

[captainspoke]

Well, we just had an earthquake here in ishikawa...

[adamu]

Well, we just had an earthquake here in ishikawa...

Stay safe, Captain! That 5m tsunami warning is very concerning, here's hoping it doesn't come to fruition.

[captainspoke]

Well, we just had an earthquake here in ishikawa...

Stay safe, Captain! That 5m tsunami warning is very concerning, here's hoping it doesn't come to fruition.

Barring aftershocks (and there were a couple small ones), I think it's over. I did have to reset a couple things--push the right button on the gas meter outside, reset the boiler (hot water), same with the heaters. The initial water flow was very rusty and brown, probably stuff shaken loose in our old pipes.

A couple very small/minor things fell, but trivial given the strength and duration. And, the wife's plan was to make tempura and kara-age for dinner, so it was fortunate that it happened before there was a pot of really hot oil on the stove. Instead, she just threw it all in the wok and it turned out fine, and easier cleanup and dishes, too.

[adamu]

I think it's over

The 5m Tsunami warning is still in place, make sure you're away from that!

[Wales4rugbyWC23]

Black swan event specific to Japan:

Ben not doing his weekly Monday post for Retire Japan.

[RetireJapan]

Black swan event specific to Japan:

Ben not doing his weekly Monday post for Retire Japan.