RetireJapan

I’ve been following this policy proposal closely, and I think it’s a smart step in the right direction.

From my perspective, it’s families with three or more children who actually contribute to population growth, since two or fewer only maintain the replacement rate. While the policy is clearly aimed at easing financial pressure on larger families, the deeper goal seems to be addressing the long-term risks of population decline and an inverted age pyramid.

Some critics have pointed out that the benefit mainly applies to the oldest of the three children—but that also means the cost to the government is relatively limited. That said, in cases where the first and second kids are close in age, the second child might also qualify. I assume that if the eldest continues into graduate school and remains a dependent, the second child could still benefit too.

Only around 12–13% of families in Japan have three or more children, so the real challenge is incentivizing families with two kids to consider having a third. It’s a clever approach, and I genuinely hope it succeeds.

Chuhai_strong wrote: ↑Sat May 03, 2025 8:12 pm That said, in cases where the first and second kids are close in age, the second child might also qualify. I assume that if the eldest continues into graduate school and remains a dependent, the second child could still benefit too.

Only around 12–13% of families in Japan have three or more children, so the real challenge is incentivizing families with two kids to consider having a third. It’s a clever approach, and I genuinely hope it succeeds.

Yes, your assumption is correct. If the eldest continues to grad school they are still a dependent so you can continue to qualify.

I agree that the approach is smart. We won't see if it a success for a while, though.

Wouldn’t we already have seen a pickup in the birth rate if this was really enough to incentive people to have more children?