RetireJapan

Tkydon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:07 am

beanhead wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 1:12 pm

Haystack wrote: ↑Mon Jun 06, 2022 8:27 am
They are literally called Sompo Japan DC

I don't think we are disagreeing here though...

Don is right. Company DC plans used to be marketed as Japan 401k. I was offered one as such at a company 15 years or so ago. As these things have become more popular, I don't think they are phrasing it that way so much any more.
See below links:

https://www.ifa-japan.co.jp/lp/401k/
https://www.resonabank.co.jp/nenkin/ide ... -401k.html

If it was used as a marketing term in the past then it seems I really most concede the point! However, I find that extremely odd and confusing branding.

Before iDeCo was coined, back when only kokumin nenkin payers could use it, they were called 個人型確定拠出年金(401k) if I recall correctly.

If I assume that the JPY will strengthen against the USD over the long term (i.e., back to 110-120 in 3-4 years), would it make more sense to buy the dip in equities using a hedged fund such as "ｉＦｒｅｅ 外国株式インデックス（為替ヘッジあり）" rather than the eMaxis Slim funds?

Is anyone else investing in hedges funds while the JPY is so low?

danarse wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:17 am If I assume that the JPY will strengthen against the USD over the long term (i.e., back to 110-120 in 3-4 years), would it make more sense to buy the dip in equities using a hedged fund such as "ｉＦｒｅｅ 外国株式インデックス（為替ヘッジあり）" rather than the eMaxis Slim funds?

Is anyone else investing in hedges funds while the JPY is so low?

I think predicting swings in the currency market is a fools game. There are far too many moving part.

The data on hedged equity funds show that they are not worth it in the long run. The extra fees and possibly liquidity issues are a worry. They are not for long term investors, but may be useful to active investors.

However, they are worth considering for foreign currency bond funds.

danarse wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:17 am If I assume that the JPY will strengthen against the USD over the long term (i.e., back to 110-120 in 3-4 years), would it make more sense to buy the dip in equities using a hedged fund such as "ｉＦｒｅｅ 外国株式インデックス（為替ヘッジあり）" rather than the eMaxis Slim funds?

Is anyone else investing in hedges funds while the JPY is so low?

The currency hedgeあり option allows you to invest in a fund and minimize the effect of currency swings, allowing the fund to more accurately reflect the performance of the actual underlying assets. It's just a hedge, so it's not perfect, but it does minimize the currency effects. So if you buy today into such a fund, it will be akin to locking in today's rate for the duration that you hold that investment. There is a price, in the form of increased fees.

But if you're looking to make a short-term bet on currency fluctuations, why not just buy fx directly? (and yes, I am classifying 3-4 years as short term)
The eMaxis slim funds are recommended on this board under two important assumptions: that they are meant as long-term (think multi-decade) holdings, and; they are an investment vehicle that allows maximum upside potential without the need to make bets on short-term market movements (which are inherently unpredictable). Given those two assumptions, I think you can see why it doesn't make sense to take a position on short-term currency movements with those funds.

HeavyMetal wrote: ↑Sun May 22, 2022 7:57 pm
That would be great but I have no idea where to get Japanese stocks statements, and can't read them anyway (kanji). And without that I wouldn't invest... Maybe some website publishes them, in English?
And also, I do not see much future for Japan economy, to invest long term...

Most companies publish their accounts on their websites. Many of the larger companies publish them in English too, as well as quarterly results presentations. Some even have streaming results calls in English, or with subtitles.

Search on "Company Name Investor Relations" which should drop you straight there.

Haystack wrote: ↑Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:54 am I think predicting swings in the currency market is a fools game. There are far too many moving part.

I completely agree with this. It is a zero-sum game and even the "experts" (people who are paid to have an opinion) seem to get it wrong about as much as they get it right. I believe different things drive foreign exchange rates at different times, and nobody knows what will be driving them in a month or a years time. In fact, it's pretty hard to say what drove them in the past - best we can do is look for correlations and try to decompose the drivers but it's an inexact art with large residual errors.

today I decided to invest in USD
as a short term speculative bet.

JPY/USD can easily go to 150yen (which is another 10% increase) and stay there for a long while... that or the whole country could end up defaulting on its debt... or both... (or neither)

with the options of :
a) holding that for a while (months/years) until the JPY starts to strengthen up
or
b) use it to buy the next big dip (if there will ever be one) in equities or commodities.
or
c) spend it on my next trips to the USA.

With the current exchange rate this is a topic I’m very interested in. My current/past strategy of monthly DCA of EMaxisSlim S&P500 / WorldIndex / World excluding Japan seems rather silly right now. As does investing in the US mega caps, even though I’d love to add some more APPL or GOOG at these prices, but the exchange rates scares me off doing any pure USD based investing.

As we know it’s almost all currencies getting slammed against the dollar now, and as such one option would be Investment trusts which are focused outside the US and outside Japan - can anyone point me in the direction of European or U.K. focused funds that might do the job? I’m using Rakuten for my investments here.

My theory is by investing in Europe or U.K. based funds or trusts we can enjoy some of the market dip in fund price without this being offset by today’s batshit exchange rate.

Japanese is of course the other option however I have little faith in the Nikkei giving the returns I want over the years ahead until retirement and have enough exposure to Japan in life anyway, without going mega long their equities too.

smalldog wrote: ↑Thu Jul 14, 2022 8:41 pm today’s batshit exchange rate

Worth keeping in mind that it is possible the yen will stay at this level vs the dollar or even weaken further. Or it might strengthen.

I don't know, so I'm just carrying on with regular investments into the all-country fund.