RetireJapan

beanhead wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 4:44 pm

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2024 5:40 am
I certainly won’t be able to fill up next years allocation. So thanks for confirming my initial thoughts. Always good to double check. At the moment I seem to be getting drunk on the NISA returns from the s&p500 and the NASDAQ. When will the party end. .

which are partly due to the yen/$ exchange rate, of course...

So true. I guess we might get a hangover when the Fed starts cutting interest rates. Is it something any of us think about when we want to sell something? But then again it looks like trying to "time" things. It seems like a see-saw. We get punch drunk on the weak yen profits but are also aware of the bitter taste when we buy less for our yen, only for the hangover to come when the yen strengthens, and we get less yen (when repatriated) but at the same time we get to buy things cheaper, for the next party. This may mean the tourist boom might also hit Japan. oh well. We got on the rollercoaster, and some dips, and loops are on the way. LOL

banders wrote: ↑Sun Jun 16, 2024 10:20 am I didn’t give it much thought and planned to sell old NISA at the end of each year and buy in the new. Any reason not to do that right now if we don’t need the buying capacity in the growth portion for the rest of the year?

Not thinking is the way. Make a system and stick to it. Don't give yourself the chance to tinker.

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Thu Jun 20, 2024 1:55 am I guess we might get a hangover when the Fed starts cutting interest rates. Is it something any of us think about when we want to sell something? But then again it looks like trying to "time" things.

When the FOMC does cut their policy rate, or as we approach that time, I imagine US stocks will like that very much (maybe that’s why they are around all time highs now, not to mention the AI buzz). So it’s not something I am worried about for my long term investments, since US stocks should do ok with a weaker dollar.

But the forex these days does remind me of the naughties yen carry trade boom. When things turned sour there was quite a stampede back into the yen by all the Mrs Watanabe’s. That was around the time I started to start notice and commenced my stressful hobby of forex speculation

If a similar move in forex would come about, considering the last carry trade bubble was two decades ago, buying as much as possible when the yen is strong, will be my strategy for my long term investments. Buy ‘em cheap, at a multi year low!

Circumstances are different now compared with 2 decades ago though, so I’m not looking for a carry trade reversal… but who knows what might happen to incite Japan residents to bring their capital back to Japan. Rather than a speculative forex carry trade bubble, maybe it is a new NISA foreign investment boom, that won’t have much to stop it.

The BOJ might ease off the QE and lift their policy rate a little, but at least to me that’s not something that would lead me to change my new NISA investing.

Anyway, to the extent I think about central banks meddling with monetary policy, I will primarily act upon it only in my speculative accounts. My long term investing is on autopilot!