RetireJapan

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:05 pm Yep, I am sure there is a large discrepancy between prime, urban, suburban and rural. But even rural land might at least hold most of its value, unless you’re buying in a place with no future (seems unlikely but .. ?)

My impression is that Japan is likely to abandon many of its towns and villages. There will be no services or working infrastructure as the population necessary to support them will not be there.

In that scenario, real estate and land prices might not hold up.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:16 pm

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:05 pm Yep, I am sure there is a large discrepancy between prime, urban, suburban and rural. But even rural land might at least hold most of its value, unless you’re buying in a place with no future (seems unlikely but .. ?)

My impression is that Japan is likely to abandon many of its towns and villages. There will be no services or working infrastructure as the population necessary to support them will not be there.

In that scenario, real estate and land prices might not hold up.

I think Japan already has an established protocol for this .

The restrict your ability to rebuild or modify structures. They cite lack of access to emergency services etc.

This basically instantly drops property prices down to the bottom, making many simply a tax burden. You can see this is many rural areas where property is available for free, or near free

You can kill a community overnight with that type of order.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:16 pm

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 10:05 pm Yep, I am sure there is a large discrepancy between prime, urban, suburban and rural. But even rural land might at least hold most of its value, unless you’re buying in a place with no future (seems unlikely but .. ?)

My impression is that Japan is likely to abandon many of its towns and villages. There will be no services or working infrastructure as the population necessary to support them will not be there.

In that scenario, real estate and land prices might not hold up.

Yea, that’s why I qualified my post with “unless you are buying in a place with no future”. Can’t think many people here are looking to move to those areas though.

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 4:25 am Yea, that’s why I qualified my post with “unless you are buying in a place with no future”. Can’t think many people here are looking to move to those areas though.

Some might already be there There are many reasons to live in a particular area, such as work, family, lifestyle...
The problem is knowing right now which towns and cities will be closing down in the future. Even my town is forecast not to exist in 20-30 years, which I find very hard to believe! But not impossible I guess. I've got a feeling the rate of depopulation is going to surprise us unless drastic measures are taken soon.

northSaver wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:38 am Some might already be there There are many reasons to live in a particular area, such as work, family, lifestyle...
The problem is knowing right now which towns and cities will be closing down in the future. Even my town is forecast not to exist in 20-30 years, which I find very hard to believe! But not impossible I guess. I've got a feeling the rate of depopulation is going to surprise us unless drastic measures are taken soon.

Yeah, I think a much larger area of Japan than Deep Blue is thinking might have no future

Driving around Shikoku last week was shocking. I knew northern Tohoku was bad, but Shioku seems to be close behind (and yesterday on TV they had a program about some village in Mie where the only doctor was 75 and most of his patients were a generation older -being cared for by elderly children).

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 7:44 am
Yeah, I think a much larger area of Japan than Deep Blue is thinking might have no future

I’m well aware of the challenges facing rural Japan. There used to be a great photo blog by a long term expat here, he went round and visited these places over a period of a few years.. he document the population declines and projections.. and photographed the decay and quiet desperation of villages with only a few dozen people left there. Very melancholy and and he wrote wonderfully.

I’ll try and dig it out on web archive tonight.

Nonetheless (!) I believe the point stands - land is holding or gaining value in the places people in Japan actually live. The nationwide stats that someone mentioned earlier in the thread showed that quite clearly.

Looks like the author stopped posting in 2014, but some great posts - well worth an hour of anyone’s time to peruse

https://spikejapan.wordpress.com/

This is one of my favourite pieces:

https://spikejapan.wordpress.com/requiem-for-a-railway/

Talking of Hokkaido, take a look at the map in this link. More than 65% of municipalities are at risk of disappearing, including cities such as Hakodate, Kushiro and Otaru

https://www.uhb.jp/news/single.html?id=42164

northSaver wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:03 am Talking of Hokkaido, take a look at the map in this link. More than 65% of municipalities are at risk of disappearing, including cities such as Hakodate, Kushiro and Otaru

https://www.uhb.jp/news/single.html?id=42164

Indeed, Spike covers parts of Hokkaido including this observation on Yubari

Few cities in the developed world can have been put as comprehensively through the wringer as Yubari, on Japan’s northernmost island of Hokkaido and in its heyday known as the capital of coal: from a peak of just shy of 120,000 people in 1960, its population plummeted by four-fifths, to 21,000, in 1990, the year the last colliery closed and the last miners fled, and has since more than halved again, to below 10,000, as those who stayed on aged and died or drifted away in the wake of the city’s tumultuous 2007 bankruptcy.

Latest update I can find shows a population of 6,374…

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:22 am Are you sure you’ll lose money on your purchase? Houses do depreciate in value here, but typically land doesn’t. I’d suspect the value of your 32 year old house is already zero yen or close to it?

We also purchased an old house, in 2014 it was 31 years old and it was clear the house was “worthless” and the price of buying the land with no house on it would be the same.

I have no idea. And to be honest, some of the homes look terrible. We saw some houses, and a few are in the middle of renovation by the housing company and that looked nice. This made me think that no company would buy an old house, and invest time, and money in the new kitchens, flooring, bathroom, etc., without making a profit. We spoke to a few people, who also sold and bought a second-hand house, and they said that the buyer would often ask the owner to cut down trees, put in a new kitchen or bathroom, and then they would agree to buy it.
While I saw a house I liked, and I thought we could put in a new kitchen, (that wasn't the stock catalogue version they put in) I got a little glimpse into why they don't bother to put in a new kitchen or bathroom. The seller said, to the wife, do you really like cooking that much? Is it that important? So it triggered a thought (as a gaijin), So they don't see it as valuable to have a nice-looking kitchen, what's the point of putting in a new kitchen? and yet. Here they are putting in new kitchens all the time into renovations. It kinda felt incongruous. I wanted to choose a kitchen, from some place on the internet, (which may or may not cost more). Still looking, and thinking but i did feel a wee bit of " you'll have to decide quickly or someone else will buy it" push. And with financial people, sales, I freaking hate it. As i said to the wife, it has to be a forever place. not a きれいね　place.
Anyway still looking, but also got another few areas they did point out to us to consider.