RetireJapan

After some thought, I have cashed out 1/3 of our 2024 gains.

It is about two years' worth of living expenses, so will make a difference if we get a crash or the yen strengthens. If things keep going up then we'll make slightly less money but I think it is worth that tradeoff.

I think that is perfectly valid. Jan and Feb were an excellent year!

The goal is to make what you aim to make. If you made it already, taking risk off the table is fine.

The books I read by folks like Tomoya Asakura often start from “what do you need to make?”, not “what is the maximum gain you could make, along with a higher risk?”.

If one needs 5%, a portfolio that might yield 5% is good, not a portfolio that might yield 15% with a much higher risk.

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:57 pm After some thought, I have cashed out 1/3 of our 2024 gains.

It is about two years' worth of living expenses, so will make a difference if we get a crash or the yen strengthens. If things keep going up then we'll make slightly less money but I think it is worth that tradeoff.

Time in the market > timing the market!

If you are investing with a ten year+ time horizon I wouldn't try to time these things. If you are planning on encashing everything within a decade then there is a argument for de-risking.

FWIW I also woulnd't look ar my portfolio monthly, once or twice a year is more than enough....

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 2:14 pm Time in the market > timing the market!

If you are investing with a ten year+ time horizon I wouldn't try to time these things. If you are planning on encashing everything within a decade then there is a argument for de-risking.

FWIW I also woulnd't look ar my portfolio monthly, once or twice a year is more than enough....

That is largely true, but I think the rules change in the endgame.

Personal finance is personal after all, and other than my ridiculous stretch goal we've almost certainly got enough money.

I'm more concerned with hedging against a stronger yen that what the stock market does.

I have also take some money out of the market at various points over the last twenty years and I have been wrong every single time.

It’s easy to take money out at a profit but it’s much harder to reinvest it when things are bleak. I’m great at the former but rubbish at the latter.

The net result is I’ve lost money by taking profits etc.

This does all assume you have a long period of investment ahead. Like I said, if you’re within a decade of encashing equities then there is more room for some dicking around trying to time the market.

Deep Blue wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 12:45 am It’s easy to take money out at a profit but it’s much harder to reinvest it when things are bleak.

Yeah, this isn't going back in, it's going on our cash pile. I think not having to sell during drawdowns is going to be more important than making an extra few basis points.

As I said, this is only a third of our 2024(!) gains.

We're kind of transitioning to retirement/drawing down investments. It's really interesting how different everything feels when you face the prospect of maybe not having income any more.

2024 has just began; but as of right now im doing pretty well. I have crypt positions i planned since the previous bear market; and i have been earning stake interest on my alt coins. My bear market strategies are simple DCA heavy and stake them for a 6-10% apy interest.
I bought 15 shares of tesla at 300 bucks; but i simply forgot about that.

I haven't been able to trade futures NQ this month a whole alot; but i made 2091 dollars; so not to bad for some extra income. I will be back trading everyday back in march and should do much better than feb PNL. I Plan to double my size in april so I should be making much more bigger gains for the rest of the year; but I will report back.

I plan to kill it this 2024 and accomplish the goals i been planning the last several years.

concerned wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:14 pm “ But one would expect the markets to recover”
It took in excess 15 years recover from the 1929 crash and the Nikkei took in excess 30 hope we do not see something like this

The recovery for stocks in the US was only 5 (for broad market) to 7 (for the DOW) years after the 1929 crash if you account for reinvestment of dividends (which reached 14% at one point) and the effects of deflation. Those exaggerated recovery lengths come when only looking at the price of an index and ignoring both total return and the effects of inflation/deflation.

Well, my "portfolio" is up (as of the time of writing) 23,733 yen compared to February, though as I didn't have a "portfolio" (and by "portfolio" I mean a spread of "eMAXIS Slim S&P" and "eMAXIS Slim World", wow such beginner) until the last week of February, it's a start.

TokyoWart wrote: ↑Sat Mar 02, 2024 3:34 am

concerned wrote: ↑Fri Mar 01, 2024 12:14 pm “ But one would expect the markets to recover”
It took in excess 15 years recover from the 1929 crash and the Nikkei took in excess 30 hope we do not see something like this

The recovery for stocks in the US was only 5 (for broad market) to 7 (for the DOW) years after the 1929 crash if you account for reinvestment of dividends (which reached 14% at one point) and the effects of deflation. Those exaggerated recovery lengths come when only looking at the price of an index and ignoring both total return and the effects of inflation/deflation.

This is an extremely important point, the vast majority of long term returns from equity investing come from re-investing dividends. We all know the power of compounding over the long term, and the dividends you receive and reinvest at the start of a thirty or fourty year investment will provide a significant chunk of long term returns.

I always sigh when I see the index levels being quoted as it's just part of the story.