RetireJapan

Setting aside quibbling about the definition of black swan event, a major earthquake in Tokyo and area would do it. It is basically guaranteed to happen at some point. The thing I worry about most though is the debt levels here and how a debt crisis could lead to a rapid and uncontrolled depreciation of the currency at some point and/or rapid inflation. But I have been worried about this for years and years and it has never materialized so what do I know.

eyeswideshut wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 6:16 am Setting aside quibbling about the definition of black swan event, a major earthquake in Tokyo and area would do it. It is basically guaranteed to happen at some point. The thing I worry about most though is the debt levels here and how a debt crisis could lead to a rapid and uncontrolled depreciation of the currency at some point and/or rapid inflation. But I have been worried about this for years and years and it has never materialized so what do I know.

I think of a Japanese fiscal implosion just like a major Kanto earthquake, everyone knows it will happen but nobody can forsee the timing. It will be a similar sized event to the Asian Financial Crisis or Global Financial Crisis when it happens - the JFC or GFC2. Everyone can see the situation is unsustainable but nobody knows what is the final straw that will break the camel's back. It could be ten years or ten decades away.

1. The world becoming officially polarised. A group of countries officially believing in X and a group of countries officially believing in Y. Every situation these days seems to be polarised so countries could split into two groups. So Countries X vs Countries Y on every world issue. Japan won’t join either group and is ostracised politically but becomes an economic powerhouse.

2. The collapse of the US Dollar and Gold. The economic system as we know it becomes based on something other than what we know. The Japanese Yen becomes the world currency.

3. Retirejapan turns out to be run by a bloke who has been living off family wealth and hasn’t legitimately earned any of the money put into NISA/iDeCo.

4. Gareth wins at the Keirin Grand Prix and never needs to work again.

5. Sorry but I agree with Adamu. Unless I’m right in which case I disagree with Adamu.

Gareth wrote: ↑Sat Dec 30, 2023 12:26 pm 3. Retirejapan turns out to be run by a bloke who has been living off family wealth and hasn’t legitimately earned any of the money put into NISA/iDeCo.

1)Donald Trump becomes US president again, and outlaws all future elections
2)The North Atlantic drift finally stops due to global warming, causing western Europe to experience severe winters
3)Companies like AMZN, MSFT, Google due to their size now call the shots going forward and not governments
4)A.I becomes self aware and tries to take control
5) The internet is shutdown due to a virus
6)Massive Earth quake in Tokyo
7)Due to massive debt, currencies begin to collapse world wide
8) Russia invades FInland/Poland
9) Nuclear/Dirty bomb is used

Taiwan's been mentioned, but not dprk. They're outmatched in all ways conventional, so their only choice is to go nuclear.

And where are many US bases located?

adamu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:22 am I think the nature of black swan events is that you can't predict them, so the thread seems quite pointless

Oh, I don't know about that. We know they will happen, but just like predicting the stock market, we haven't a clue when they will happen.
Not to mention the idea of human psychology thinking what happened yesterday will be the same tomorrow. Maybe we do see them coming but collectively we often ignore the signals. Financial Bubbles,tulips,housing.dot com, come to mind, wars, pandemics, and appeasement come to mind. I think it was Mark Twain who once said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This means, that while the details change, circumstances change, settings change, and names change, similar events will essentially recycle. But it is quite pointless to "worry" about them.

Bubblegun wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 6:11 am

adamu wrote: ↑Fri Dec 29, 2023 4:22 am I think the nature of black swan events is that you can't predict them, so the thread seems quite pointless

Oh, I don't know about that. We know they will happen, but just like predicting the stock market, we haven't a clue when they will happen.
Not to mention the idea of human psychology thinking what happened yesterday will be the same tomorrow. Maybe we do see them coming but collectively we often ignore the signals. Financial Bubbles,tulips,housing.dot com, come to mind, wars, pandemics, and appeasement come to mind. I think it was Mark Twain who once said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” This means, that while the details change, circumstances change, settings change, and names change, similar events will essentially recycle. But it is quite pointless to "worry" about them.

Well, actually, 'Black Swan' events literally refer to things that come as a complete surprise: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

"Unprecedented solar flare causes electromagnetic blackout and temperatures to rise 10 degrees"

Look that one up in the history books

captainspoke wrote: ↑Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:47 am Taiwan's been mentioned, but not dprk.

Post 2!