RetireJapan

beanhead wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 7:42 am

Tsumitate Wrestler wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 5:08 am Tsumitated the tsumitate (10 万, via Rakuten card/cash). Taking Adamu's suggestions to heart about habits

Sold taxable assets and rebought in Growth. 240万

Sold and rebought in 80万 portions to limit "risk".

This is probably the sensible way. I will have to pay tax on the gains in the tokutei account and still not sure about this. So I have sold and rebought about 1M yen so far. I may wait a few more months for the rest...or I may pull the plug and sell.

It is 2/3 slightly delayed lump sum, 1/3 DCA.

Centering my budget around a minimum of 10 万 tsumitate. {pus 68,000 yen ideco in my case). I want to keep that up if I can for the next 30 years.

....

RetireJapan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 2:40 pm I'm doing tsumitate 100,000 a month and selling taxable to rebuy in growth.

Did 800,000 this month and will hope for a stronger yen for the next two 800,000 chunks.

Don't think it will make much difference long term though.

Also, look at our Commander in chief over here trying to time the market

Tsumitate Wrestler wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:45 am Also, look at our Commander in chief over here trying to time the market

Do as I say, not as I do

The first year I bought into NISA I bought at the very beginning of the year, all at once, it went down immediately after, I regretted the 10% opportunity loss it for the whole year
(I do not really care now)

The following year, I waited for a good price. I ended up buying at the end of the year with a 20% regret
(still hurts)

This year I am tsumitating ¥100.000 the 5th of every month and I setup a recurring purchase of ¥200,000 the 19th of every month for the growth portion, still hoping to time the market on a large dip and buy at once all I left available for that portion.
(I am already doubting myself on this strategy)

Rather naively perhaps, I just decided that I didn't want to spend time thinking about it, especially as there seemed to be no good answer. After getting to a certain level of knowledge, beyond that seems like a waste of time (and emotional energy) to me. And the money would have been sleeping in the bank doing nothing otherwise anyway.

That new NISA investment is already up 1.75% (43,750 yen) as of yesterday. Woohoo!

Now I've got to ween myself off keep on looking.

mikele3 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 6:17 am still hoping to time the market on a large dip and buy at once

In these sorts of situations, there are reasons for the dip and it feels like the world is going to end, spending your cash to buy stocks will seem like the least wise thing to do.

Also: My 2000th post. Nice being here over the years

I am also leaning towards tsumitate every month, and retaining the option to lump sum in at an opportune time.

By default I should end up at the year end having invested enough. And chances are I will be too slow to buy a dip - that’s how it was with coronavirus.

The US election volatility may be a good chance, but unfortunately that is November by which time we are 10 months invested already…

Setting up some ETF limit order well below the market is another idea I have… but it would probably not it hit.

Tsumitate seems best!!

I see that the nikkei 225 added more than 6% this week, and there were only 4 trading days.

It makes me wonder whether the NISA investors have been eagerly loading up their nisa “growth” allocations at the beginning of the new year. In other words, whether there isn’t a “seasonal” effect of nisa going on.

So could nisa investors be out of ammo come February ( or even late January)?

Tsumitate purchases should be more likely to be repetitive in nature, but 2.4 million of growth purchases would completely outweigh 0.1 million of tsumitate purchases, if people have been going the lump sum route to start the year.

Pros and cons - time in the market does earn dividends, but I’m guessing that the market won’t keep going up 6% every 4 trading days this year.

sutebayashi wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:22 pm I’m guessing that the market won’t keep going up 6% every 4 trading days this year.

Sell now before it's too late!

Well, We decided to sell from the taxable accounts and plonk the lot in the new NISA growth section. Then continue with maxing out the Tsumitate section as per DCA.

Buying and selling stock before/after the y/e was easy with limit orders and I gained a little bit overall. But this All Country is a bit of a pain. I sold at the year end because I don’t want any in a taxable account. Now it’s shooting to the stars and I’m certainly not going to buy at an ATH, whatever statistics may say about lump sums. Sure, it may never drop to this level again, but that’s a mighty big ‘may’. Think I’ll wait till it drops a hundred or so from here then start DCAing each week for the next couple of months.