RetireJapan

I see. My default plan was to stick the old regular nisa proceeds into the new tax free nisa each year so I am not too worried about that myself. From one tax protected account to another.

But indeed this raises attention to something an all regular nisa user like myself will need to think about over the next 5 years.

Checked my nisa history now (I usually look at a combined accounts view in Monex) and see my nisa value actually declined in 2022, for the first time since 2014. Down some 800K, with the peak around Jan/ Feb last year.

For each regular nisa, one needs an exit strategy.
1. Holding till the account’s 5 year term is up runs the risk of getting out at a bad spot in the market as you note, so
2. Selling the expiring year’s balance early at a seemingly opportune moment may be something to consider, in I guess the 6-12 months before the regular nisa account’s 5 year limit is reached. (Market timing alert!)

This actually means I should look at the 2019 nisa balance now and think about anything that might better be sold now, in intra year. I do have a few silly commodity oriented toshins sitting around for which this might be appropriate...

After writing the previous reply to put any potential googlers finding this thread right, I remembered to update the wiki page with the same info too.

https://retirewiki.jp/wiki/NISA

I think you should also consider how fast you can use up NISA 2024 allowance.
If I use T-NISA and consider 20y it as good as lifetime, I would effectively increase NISA contribution limit from 18M to 18.4M.
For me I think I can contribute less than 2M out of annual limit of 3.6M. Which means I can sell all regular NISA funds of 2023 and buy them in new NISA somewhere between 2024 and 2028? In that case I don't need to pay taxes for that 800k in taxable account.
If my situation suddenly improves and I could use up all 18M of allowance within 5 years I will lose by choosing regular NISA over T-NISA but I consider this risk negligible if not desirable