RetireJapan

The value of anything is only what you or someone else is willing to pay for it...
You only realise the value of something you own when you find someone who is willing to pay you for it.
Therefore, if you want to sell at a profit, you have to sell while there are still people willing to pay the price, so while the price is still going up, before demand dries up...

TJKansai wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 4:25 am

adamu wrote: ↑Thu May 12, 2022 12:56 pm As an asset rather than a currency, I've never understood it. Crypto is like gold with no other functional purpose: it exists, it's fungible, and all transactions are recorded, that's it. The only reason to buy it is in the hope you can sell it again later.

I totally agree, though at the end of the day all investments have the same end goal.
Some have value based on a companies shown profit, but many are priced on future valuations that may or may not come true.

Many physical assets such as artwork/diamonds/NFT/collectible anything have no value if you take away the hype. My beer can collection in the 1980s was once worth $200 and then the bottom fell out of the market and it dropped to virtual nil.

Even gold is iffy. There are commercial and ornamental uses, but I suspect most of the pricing value comes from expectations as a stable store of value.

Tkydon wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 5:32 am The value of anything is only what you or someone else is willing to pay for it...
You only realise the value of something you own when you find someone who is willing to pay you for it.
Therefore, if you want to sell at a profit, you have to sell while there are still people willing to pay the price, so while the price is still going up, before demand dries up...

This is true in a superficial sense. But as TJKansai pointed out there's an important difference between assets that produce value, like stocks, bonds, real estate, an apple tree in the garden... and assets that just exist like gold and cryptocurrency.

Theoretically something should only be worth what it produces or can be used for. But there is also speculation that can inflate prices. Anything that has an inflated value over time is susceptible to losing that value if people's confidence in it changes.

If the price of apple trees falls to zero, you still get your apples every year and can sell them if you like. If the price of gold or crypto falls to zero, the best you can do is line it up with TJKansai's beer can collection.

adamu wrote: ↑Sun May 29, 2022 5:11 am Theoretically something should only be worth what it produces or can be used for. But there is also speculation that can inflate prices. Anything that has an inflated value over time is susceptible to losing that value if people's confidence in it changes.

Utility value should not be confused with pricing. The tech behind crypto, for example, is indeed interesting, but it's not what drives pricing. There are no "fundamentals" to crypto pricing, it's just speculative market forces.

But at the same time, let's not underestimate the power of speculative forces, because it's really the juice that powers the entire machine. Even if you believe that all crypto investing is based on speculation, ie. on selling to a 'greater fool', there are enough people out there who place enough value on that possibility that, voila, you have yourself a functioning market.

Me, I believe there are enough people playing this game that it's well worth betting a percentage point or two of my portfolio on it. I'm definitely not a HODLer, but I'm patient, and over the last several years opportunities to 2x your money have come up with startling regularity, at least once it twice a year. So it's not going badly thus far. Obviously, sticking to the major coins, like the ten or so available from Japanese exchanges like Coincheck, help reduce the possibility of getting taken in by rug pulls and other such scams, and help ensure adequate liquidity.

mighty58 wrote: ↑Sun May 29, 2022 1:40 pm Utility value should not be confused with pricing. The tech behind crypto, for example, is indeed interesting, but it's not what drives pricing. There are no "fundamentals" to crypto pricing, it's just speculative market forces.

But at the same time, let's not underestimate the power of speculative forces, because it's really the juice that powers the entire machine. Even if you believe that all crypto investing is based on speculation, ie. on selling to a 'greater fool', there are enough people out there who place enough value on that possibility that, voila, you have yourself a functioning market.

Me, I believe there are enough people playing this game that it's well worth betting a percentage point or two of my portfolio on it. I'm definitely not a HODLer, but I'm patient, and over the last several years opportunities to 2x your money have come up with startling regularity, at least once it twice a year. So it's not going badly thus far. Obviously, sticking to the major coins, like the ten or so available from Japanese exchanges like Coincheck, help reduce the possibility of getting taken in by rug pulls and other such scams, and help ensure adequate liquidity.

Yeah, it's something I struggle with. It *shouldn't* be worth anything, but it is... I wouldn't put 25% of my portfolio into gold, as Andrew Hallam suggests in his Permanent Portfolio, for example. But a little bit of gold and crypto to stave off the FOMO doesn't hurt too much. As long as you're not surprised if/when the bottom falls out eventually.

I invest what I can afford to lose in crypto. I've been doing DCA on weekly to monthly basis in BTC and ETH for several years and it's doing extremely well and really getting to quite a big lump sum.. it wouldn't bother me if it went to zero though, as it was money I didn't care to lose. it's the same thinking I have when I go to a casino, I only play the amount I don't care about losing.

seijaibow wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 2:04 am I invest what I can afford to lose in crypto. I've been doing DCA on weekly to monthly basis in BTC and ETH for several years and it's doing extremely well and really getting to quite a big lump sum.. it wouldn't bother me if it went to zero though, as it was money I didn't care to lose. it's the same thinking I have when I go to a casino, I only play the amount I don't care about losing.

The same as me. Thought I'd have a little flutter and if it comes good... great.If not,I'm still working. Haven't been outside Japan in three and a half years so using a small amount of money that would otherwise have been used on overseas travel.And have a chance of it coming back,unlike the travelling.
Can't believe you're so blase if you were to lose that nice sum.The objective is to make money,no? If it were me,I'm taking some money off the table,Got damn.

Must include the obligatory disclaimer...NFA.

Cracaphat wrote: ↑Tue May 31, 2022 3:58 pm

seijaibow wrote: ↑Mon May 30, 2022 2:04 am I invest what I can afford to lose in crypto. I've been doing DCA on weekly to monthly basis in BTC and ETH for several years and it's doing extremely well and really getting to quite a big lump sum.. it wouldn't bother me if it went to zero though, as it was money I didn't care to lose. it's the same thinking I have when I go to a casino, I only play the amount I don't care about losing.

The same as me. Thought I'd have a little flutter and if it comes good... great.If not,I'm still working. Haven't been outside Japan in three and a half years so using a small amount of money that would otherwise have been used on overseas travel.And have a chance of it coming back,unlike the travelling.
Can't believe you're so blase if you were to lose that nice sum.The objective is to make money,no? If it were me,I'm taking some money off the table,Got damn.

Must include the obligatory disclaimer...NFA.

The thing about taking money off the table, is that you then need to do something with that money. I've already maxed out on NISA and ideco accounts for the family, and have a tokutei account doing DCA for index funds on a monthly basis. so the amount I put into crypto is literally excess. When it does come time to selling, it maybe a real headache in JP. Unlike equities where the capital gains taxes are 20%, for crypto it's treated like income tax so can be upwards of 50%. so would need to first relocate to a more favorable country and then sell.

The thing about taking money off the table, is that you then need to do something with that money. I've already maxed out on NISA and ideco accounts for the family, and have a tokutei account doing DCA for index funds on a monthly basis. so the amount I put into crypto is literally excess. When it does come time to selling, it maybe a real headache in JP. Unlike equities where the capital gains taxes are 20%, for crypto it's treated like income tax so can be upwards of 50%. so would need to first relocate to a more favorable country and then sell.

You're right in what you're saying and I can picture the headache of converting to fiat, for the taxman to unfairly tax at a much higher rate than with stocks.Though apparently Kishida is "considering" to reform crypto tax.I'll believe it when I see it.In what you're saying it'd be better to hold off than sell at an outrageous tax.Though could be a nice,future problem to have.

https://techstory.in/japan-plans-to-lib ... e-country/