RetireJapan

Tkydon wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 11:08 am But your graphs are still for a single Lump Sum Investment at t=0...

Thank you. Good Catch. I reset it to $100 monthly with a $10,000 lump sum. (Reinvested Dividends)

It just barely matches 20 Year Treasuries of the span. It is expensive and volatile.

Thanks! Tkydon and Haystack for the discussion and analysis here

So I guess the lesson for me here is stick with my current plan of 60/40 global stock/bond index

While commodities could pay off if one is lucky the drawdowns are severe and not worth losing sleep over....

Haystack wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 12:40 am Here is a 20 year snapshot. S&P500 vs 4 Commodities trackers, including Rogers.

...

Tkydon wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 7:30 am Your Graph.

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (90.39%) out-perfomed the Vanguard 500 Index Fund ETF (72.09%) over the last 5 years for a single Lump Sum Investment dated 5-May-2017!

And I will run a Fixed Investment Dollar Cost Average comparison for the two investments over the same period!

Tkydon wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 8:29 am If you had invested US$100 every month since May 2017

VOO Loses by 25%
...

Just to point out all these VOO DBC comparisons are basically invalid because they don't take into account dividends. VOO has a historical dividend yield of about 2%, while DBC has only sporadically paid out dividends.

Once dividends are taken into account, the past performance of DBC against VOO looks even worse.

TBS wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 12:36 pm
Just to point out all these VOO DBC comparisons are basically invalid because they don't take into account dividends. VOO has a historical dividend yield of about 2%, while DBC has only sporadically paid out dividends.

Once dividends are taken into account, the past performance of DBC against VOO looks even worse.

I set portfolio visualizer to reinvest dividends for all funds. But I am a novice. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

Haystack wrote: ↑Mon May 02, 2022 1:07 pm I set portfolio visualizer to reinvest dividends for all funds. But I am a novice. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/

Ahh I am sorry. I was just looking at the Google Finance link and Tkydon's numbers from earlier in the first page which didn't.

Will check out portfolio visualizer - it looks powerful.