Yeah, I pretty much decided the same when I started out.TokyoWart wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 3:55 amI don't know where the market will go next, but one interpretation of the market action is that money has become less valuable so more yen/dollars/euros are needed to purchase the slices of companies we call "stocks." I agree that it's counter-intuitive that markets are rising while the economic news worsens. I made the decision a long time ago to just stay invested so I'm either going down with the ship or riding the waves.jcc wrote: ↑Mon Apr 20, 2020 2:46 am The US stock market recovery is boggling my mind.
Never before have I felt so tempted to time the market and just sell a big chunk of my developed nations stock to rebuy it after the next dip.
Trump is looking to reopen the country, deaths are going to go up again and I can't imagine that would stabilize the stockmarket. Am I crazy?
For all the other action in the last couple of years I've never felt as tempted to time the market as right now. Has anyone already pulled the trigger?
I believe this will recover before the time I actually need the money(5-15 years from now). So I really could just do nothing and stick to the plan.
On the other hand, it seems like a golden opportunity to make a bit more on top by selling high(ish) and buying back in after the (what I believe to be) inevitable drop in a month or two. Not because I believe the drop is rational(for long term investors selling just doesn't make sense), but because I think the market isn't rational and once we see "reopening america" bring a huge resurgence in cases, things will drop.
Well, I think the deaths are going to be significantly ahead of normal death counts if places allow it to just run rampant. Even moderate cases can become fatal without treatment, and other ill people find themselves without the ability to get treatment. So we're not talking about 1% mortality rate, but a lot more once people can't get treatment and other illnesses become collateral damage. Many of those cases are going to be very impactful, and fear of the virus will still keep many voluntarily isolated(as we are in Japan) impacting the economy until a vaccine is found. Never mind the impacts of civil unrest. Even if you ignore the morality of letting millions die to "save the economy" I don't think it can be saved, the impact can only be lessened by balanced measures that attempt to keep the virus in line while minimizing economic impact.
Eventually the economy will recover, so maybe everyone is just suddenly being very rational and thinking long term, but historically that has not been the case in the past.
I think I'll just strike a balance by not selling anything but holding back a bit on my monthly investments to put them in a bit later.