The corona effect

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eyeswideshut
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Re: The corona effect

Post by eyeswideshut »

Rezz wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:02 am
eyeswideshut wrote: Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:11 pm ...and, immediately after I put some more money into the stock market we are down another 5% and officially into a bear market. Italy is in complete shut-down and my company has asked everyone to work from home. I plan to keep buying all the way down but this is getting crazy.
This is exactly what happened to me last night :( My fourth investment so far during this rollercoaster dip over the last month or so. I had quite a bit of cash saved back that I had been meaning to invest for a while. I've already used about 70% of it, but now I'm feeling slight paralysis as to when I should drop the rest in.
Once the market dropped 10% I start placing orders on a weekly basis and will keep buying equal amounts in accordance with my desired asset allocation until my spare cash is gone. It is a painful process. I will never time the bottom and there is a good chance I will run out of cash prior to the bottom but at least I can take solace in the fact I was not buying at the top. Maybe you can develop a weekly or monthly cadence to get the rest of your money back into the market? Otherwise you will never 'feel' it is the right time.
deepdishj
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Re: The corona effect

Post by deepdishj »

U.S. cancels all flights coming from Europe and the futures go into freefall. We're in bear territory now.
Nikkei dropped another 4%.
eyeswideshut
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Re: The corona effect

Post by eyeswideshut »

deepdishj wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:06 am U.S. cancels all flights coming from Europe and the futures go into freefall. We're in bear territory now.
Nikkei dropped another 4%.
This has to cause a global recession - I see no way around it. I predict a wave of bankruptcies coming in travel and oil-related industries over the next few weeks with knock-on effects to banking and finance later.
deepdishj
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Re: The corona effect

Post by deepdishj »

I'm not sure yet if it's just passenger flights or includes commercial goods. Trump's announcement wasn't clear on that.

Update: the White House announced that Trump's statement about the ban applying to" trade and cargo" was an error.
Dr.Strangelove
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Re: The corona effect

Post by Dr.Strangelove »

So its a good time to add a bulk payment into my daughters Junior NISA? Not sure how much longer I can wait to see how low the market will go.
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adamu
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Re: The corona effect

Post by adamu »

I'm just going to avoid even looking at my account until it's time to make the next regular investment 🙈
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RetireJapan
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Re: The corona effect

Post by RetireJapan »

adamu wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 2:50 pm I'm just going to avoid even looking at my account until it's time to make the next regular investment 🙈
I made the mistake of looking... we're down at least 5 million yen since yesterday :shock:

Fortunately I seem to have read enough investing books. Those numbers bother me not one bit.
English teacher and writer. RetireJapan founder. Avid reader.

eMaxis Slim Shady 8-)
TokyoWart
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Re: The corona effect

Post by TokyoWart »

One thing to consider for your taxable accounts during this downturn. Tax loss harvesting in a “tokutei” Japanese account will mean that the capital loss is subtracted from your dividend income at the end of the year and you get the 20.315% of tax that was withheld refunded to your account during the last week of December. Japan doesn’t really have a wash sale rule so you could buy back the position (depending on your brokerage account policy) in 5 days or even less. If you are a US citizen the IRS will still apply wash sale rules so you can’t buy something “substantially identical” within 30 days (but there’s a lot of leeway, for instance VOO isn’t identical to VTI even though they behave nearly the same). I know it hurts but do take a look at your account s and see if there’s an opportunity for tax loss harvesting while still effectively staying in the market.
Rezz
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Re: The corona effect

Post by Rezz »

Another huge chunk off overnight it seems. I think I may actually avoid looking at rakuten this time too... 😄
eyeswideshut
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Re: The corona effect

Post by eyeswideshut »

Amazing over-night collapse. More than stocks, I am very worried about how badly bonds are doing. Both my bond funds are also down 2-3% IN ONE SESSION which may be more to do with currency fluctuations but is still highly concerning. Also gold is down 3-4%. There are no safe places besides cash and toilet paper hoarding.

That said, I purchased more stocks overnight and I plan to keep buying over the coming weeks. It feels like taking 1 man Yen bills and lighting them on fire but I have faith that stocks will recover in the long run.
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