Yen falling like a stone

[Deep Blue]

If your a "Investor" or "Speculator" it doesn't matter. The last 5-10 years the markets have shifted in the terms of inflation/volatility. Hyperinflation is not really on the table but for a long term Stagflation environment most likely. Maybe another market crash in USA will happen and you can buy the dip. Either way the outcome isn't great long term for the "Status quo". Guys in the 20-30s need to think things through and really educate themselves how Government policy and wall street effects the markets. If inflation continue to maintain its trajectory people will have to work until they die basically. Japan inflationary cycle is starting now; its only going to get worse. Your going to have to be smarter than the guy left and right of you. Buying indexes that are inflating with inflation isn't going to save you because its keeping with inflation; you have to figure out a way "Invest" or "Speculate" your fiat value against inflation. You may not like what i have to say; but most people don't like reality.

Thank you for sharing your wisdom.

[Yutaka2024]

np

[Moneymatters]

If your a "Investor" or "Speculator" it doesn't matter. The last 5-10 years the markets have shifted in the terms of inflation/volatility. Hyperinflation is not really on the table but for a long term Stagflation environment most likely. Maybe another market crash in USA will happen and you can buy the dip. Either way the outcome isn't great long term for the "Status quo". Guys in the 20-30s need to think things through and really educate themselves how Government policy and wall street effects the markets. If inflation continue to maintain its trajectory people will have to work until they die basically. Japan inflationary cycle is starting now; its only going to get worse. Your going to have to be smarter than the guy left and right of you. Buying indexes that are inflating with inflation isn't going to save you because its keeping with inflation; you have to figure out a way "Invest" or "Speculate" your fiat value against inflation. You may not like what i have to say; but most people don't like reality.

Wait. What. Is this true?
Because I thought it was just me. It all started when a toy car, that I'd been rabidly eating breakfast cereal to collect coupons for, did not arrive in the post and my mother refused to write and complain saying that was one of those things and to deal with it. (I'm fairly convinced that for 6 months around age 8 I consumed so much fiber that my body can naturally secrete it now.) Anyway. aside from developing a cast iron constitution and bowel movements you could set your clock to, I'm fairly sure that's when I decided I did not like reality one bit!
Sure, I've played along and passed many of the usual milestones of life but always with an eye on the door and the sense I'm just marking time. That was until I found the RJ forum and began to realize my true form.

Anyway, I think you are right that people that don't plan for their own financial future are more likely to struggle. But don't think you can present any evidence to show that speculation provides a greater guarantee compared to investing in markets proven to out perform inflation when measured across decades. Exactly what someone in their 20s/30s has available to them..

[captainspoke]

... Hyperinflation is not really on the table but for a long term Stagflation environment most likely. ...

Even back in the late 70s, the US did not experience hyperinflation--and inflation was (much) higher for longer than the recent spike, in either the US or Japan. The glimmer of stagflation that is being pointed out is (as yet) only a faint whimper (if that) of what happened in the 70s. Then, there was the end of vietnam, the end of bretton woods, two oil shocks, a brief shot at wage/price controls (nixon), his resignation, a fed chair (Burns) that didn't have a past model of stagflation to go on, and another oil shock (the cutoff of Iran).

Stagflation in the 70s

As for 'stagflation' now... One reason that has come up is that the much anticipated/discussed recession, much as one pundit or another wanted to be first to call it (embarrassing when it then doesn't happen, eh?), has continued to recede into the future. So those folks, wanting to maintain that ahead-of-the-curve POV for their articles, are trying hard to find something new to latch on to. And after a single quarter of continuing mild inflation and slightly reduced growth--nothing at all like the multi-year stagflation of the 70s--they've found something namable to write about.

Whoopee. And yeah, somehow there can be a conclusion that it's going to be "long term" stagflation? Let's pin this and come back to it 3-5 years from now.

*

I guess tomorrow will tell, tho perhaps only a glimpse--a fed meeting and then a press conference.

[captainspoke]

And this opinion: Don't Panic About a Yen Free Fall

[Deep Blue]

And this opinion: Don't Panic About a Yen Free Fall

Some pretty shoddy analysis in that, this typifies it

“And yet the cheap yen did not bring Japan the export boom it had expected. On the contrary, it ran a trade deficit in ten of the last thirteen years. By contrast, Japan had run a trade surplus every single year from 1994 to 2010, even though the real yen was far stronger back then. Its products were so innovative and of such high quality that they could command premium prices.“


The reason Japan moved to a trade deficit from 2011 had nothing to do with a weak yen (which only started weakening from late 2012 when Abe came to power anyway)

Instead it was substantially caused by the Mar-2011 earthquake and subsequent shuttering of Japans nuclear power stations. Suddenly Japan had to import massively increased amounts of oil, coal and gas to keep the lights on.. this is what caused the trade deficit to swing negative, nothing to do with the currency.

When you see errors and omissions on this scale it’s hard to take anything in the piece seriously.

[Yutaka2024]

If your a "Investor" or "Speculator" it doesn't matter. The last 5-10 years the markets have shifted in the terms of inflation/volatility. Hyperinflation is not really on the table but for a long term Stagflation environment most likely. Maybe another market crash in USA will happen and you can buy the dip. Either way the outcome isn't great long term for the "Status quo". Guys in the 20-30s need to think things through and really educate themselves how Government policy and wall street effects the markets. If inflation continue to maintain its trajectory people will have to work until they die basically. Japan inflationary cycle is starting now; its only going to get worse. Your going to have to be smarter than the guy left and right of you. Buying indexes that are inflating with inflation isn't going to save you because its keeping with inflation; you have to figure out a way "Invest" or "Speculate" your fiat value against inflation. You may not like what i have to say; but most people don't like reality.

Wait. What. Is this true?
Because I thought it was just me. It all started when a toy car, that I'd been rabidly eating breakfast cereal to collect coupons for, did not arrive in the post and my mother refused to write and complain saying that was one of those things and to deal with it. (I'm fairly convinced that for 6 months around age 8 I consumed so much fiber that my body can naturally secrete it now.) Anyway. aside from developing a cast iron constitution and bowel movements you could set your clock to, I'm fairly sure that's when I decided I did not like reality one bit!
Sure, I've played along and passed many of the usual milestones of life but always with an eye on the door and the sense I'm just marking time. That was until I found the RJ forum and began to realize my true form.

Anyway, I think you are right that people that don't plan for their own financial future are more likely to struggle. But don't think you can present any evidence to show that speculation provides a greater guarantee compared to investing in markets proven to out perform inflation when measured across decades. Exactly what someone in their 20s/30s has available to them..

not sure about the first part, but with the technology sectors, AI. crypto etc there will great opportunities coming down the pipe like next 5-15 years. bitcoin is just a recent example, and the internet before it. tbh it seems all the kids growing up are buying only digital assets/ tech stocks. as the baby boomers die off here in 30 years; there will most likely be a huge shift in buisness of investments, and wall street will come up new investment vehicles to lure that money in.

[Yutaka2024]

... Hyperinflation is not really on the table but for a long term Stagflation environment most likely. ...

Even back in the late 70s, the US did not experience hyperinflation--and inflation was (much) higher for longer than the recent spike, in either the US or Japan. The glimmer of stagflation that is being pointed out is (as yet) only a faint whimper (if that) of what happened in the 70s. Then, there was the end of vietnam, the end of bretton woods, two oil shocks, a brief shot at wage/price controls (nixon), his resignation, a fed chair (Burns) that didn't have a past model of stagflation to go on, and another oil shock (the cutoff of Iran).

Stagflation in the 70s

As for 'stagflation' now... One reason that has come up is that the much anticipated/discussed recession, much as one pundit or another wanted to be first to call it (embarrassing when it then doesn't happen, eh?), has continued to recede into the future. So those folks, wanting to maintain that ahead-of-the-curve POV for their articles, are trying hard to find something new to latch on to. And after a single quarter of continuing mild inflation and slightly reduced growth--nothing at all like the multi-year stagflation of the 70s--they've found something namable to write about.

Whoopee. And yeah, somehow there can be a conclusion that it's going to be "long term" stagflation? Let's pin this and come back to it 3-5 years from now.

*

I guess tomorrow will tell, tho perhaps only a glimpse--a fed meeting and then a press conference.

Well with raising the interest rates Powell has not been able to bring down inflation to where he wants. Volker was able to beat inflation by raising interest rates extremely high because the debt-gdp was way better than it is today. Powell has no more ammunition to beat inflation; he knew he was going to lose from the start.. IF If he raises raises rates it will hurt many sectors and cause a deep recession or depression that can bring down inflation , but no one is willing to do that. So sooner or later he will have to cut, and if inflation isnt brought down to 2%; it be adding fuel to the fire.. Inflation goes up wages aren't keeping up, people start hording their cash and not buying much asset. With out consistent buyers in the markets, markets will fall back to a equilibrium. Me personally im ready for any situation, hard market crash, excellerated inflation or stagflation. I will make money in any enviroment and continue to purchase assets.