Global Investor Study 2017

[DragonAsh]

Despite the confusions and limitations in
confidence expressed above, respondents still
have very high expectations for the rate of return
on their investment portfolio. The global average
is a very high annual return of 10.2% over the
next five years. More than one in 10 (13%) expect
an extremely ambitious annual return of at least
20% on their total investment portfolio.
The study also surveyed institutional investors.
Their expected annual returns are just over 5%
during the next five years.
Separate analysis by the Schroders Economics
Group forecasts returns of 4.2% for world
stock markets.

https://www.schroders.com/en/sysglobala ... master.pdf

[RetireJapan]

Despite the confusions and limitations in
confidence expressed above, respondents still
have very high expectations for the rate of return
on their investment portfolio. The global average
is a very high annual return of 10.2% over the
next five years. More than one in 10 (13%) expect
an extremely ambitious annual return of at least
20% on their total investment portfolio.
The study also surveyed institutional investors.
Their expected annual returns are just over 5%
during the next five years.
Separate analysis by the Schroders Economics
Group forecasts returns of 4.2% for world
stock markets.

https://www.schroders.com/en/sysglobala ... master.pdf

Eeek. I am hoping for a 4% return after inflation, but would be happy with 3%.

Slightly overweight EM, for whatever that is worth.

[captainspoke]

I use 5% in compounding calculators, 6% if I want 'best case' scenario.

I've tried higher numbers, but those results look way off, impossible, unrealistic, etc.

[jcc]

Well, if that isn't an indicator we are(were?) in a bubble, I have no idea what is.

I'm still absolutely sticking to my long term strategy. Just keep buying in and consider any crash as stocks on sale.

[DragonAsh]

Eeek. I am hoping for a 4% return after inflation, but would be happy with 3%.

Slightly overweight EM, for whatever that is worth.

I'm also overweight EM (more than 'slightly') as I think that's where the value is.

Historically, 5% real returns has been the norm for equities, but globalization means tighter squeezes at the margins.
My planning basically models 3% real returns, which might be a bit optimistic. I'd be happy with 3% real for the next 20 years.

Btw - what about bonds, which everyone thinks are 'safe'? Average real return of around 3% over the last 50 years or so, but with a max draw-down of 45%. (Stocks, as noted above, have averaged roughly 5%, with a max draw-down of 55%).