1. Commodities are not an investment though, they are a hedge. You want to own them BEFORE a downturn. They will not grow your porfolio long-term. Look at the historic trends for the bigger indexes.sutebayashi wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:48 am The only thing I have changed recently is boosting my allocation to commodities. Commodities did nothing for a decade but last year did great (up like 100%).
Since commodities and equities historically moved in different ways (so I read from Jim Rogers) I thought it better to increase my exposure to them and reduce allocations to other stuff - bonds mostly. Bonds have sucked this year so I guess it worked ok. But this is just a fidget, commodities are still less than 10% of what I have.
Commodities have been selling off like everything in recent weeks though.
There is an eMAXIS Toshin if others want to consider it.
(I also play with commodity futures but this is more speculative in nature…)
Yes, they are. Here is a simulator that runs you through it. (I have not tried this yet.) https://www.fopstudy.com/maineyeswideshut wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:40 amAre commodity options available on Japanese exchanges? I have never gotten in to options (too complicated for my brain) but I am curious about funds or etfs that offer a managed futures strategy - something like: https://imgpfunds.com/im-dbi-managed-fu ... ategy-etf/ as it strikes me as potentially a better hedge than the bond and gold funds I own (which have offered poor protection in this market). THe fees are high and there are probably hidden risks that I am unaware of so I am hesitant.sutebayashi wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:48 am (I also play with commodity futures but this is more speculative in nature…)
You need to specify which type of bonds you are talking about here. US treasuries, for example, are the safest investment out there. However, currency risks is a big concern for those not paid in USD.mighty58 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:49 amBonds are only "safe" if two conditions are present: 1. you have a short-term investment horizon (<5yrs), and 2. you need to preserve capital at all costs during that time (i.e. you will need to cash out).eyeswideshut wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 9:32 amWhat do you use in lieu of bonds in your portfolio or are you 100% stocks? Nothing is risk free but bonds are less risky than stocks and, if you are calculating in Yen terms, USD bonds are up on the year due to the currency exchange.
However, if you have a long-term investment horizon (>20yrs), like most of us who are saving for retirement, stock returns are incredibly consistent and stable. If fact, they actually have less volatility (lower standard deviation) than bonds over 20yr+ terms. That means they are more predictable (i.e. safer) in delivering returns than bonds are, counterintuitive as that may seem. Now obviously, over <5yr periods, equity is more volatile. At 10yrs, it gets pretty close however, and at 20yrs+, equity is superior.
The current 2year rates is 4.3%. Nothing to shake a stick at. And IBonds (sadly American only) are pretty much they best guartenned investment available.