Future JPY/USD rates

[TJKansai]

Place your bets...

Choose one for each of the 3 time periods.

[TJKansai]

Looks like only 3 of the 9 respondents were right that the JPY would be over 130 (138 at the moment).

Those who were hoping for a stronger yen at the 3 and 6-month point were a bit too optimistic IMHO (myself included).

[TokyoBoglehead]

If the US keeps raising rates, expect to see the Yen continue to weaken.

It is a pretty straightforward cause and effect situation.

[Gulliver]

If the US keeps raising rates, expect to see the Yen continue to weaken.

It is a pretty straightforward cause and effect situation.

Maybe I should’ve put this in the “for dummies“ thread because I really don’t understand Japanese monetary policy. However, isn’t it a good thing for Japan when the Yen is weak? Since the economy is primarily export oriented companies are able to sell their products more cheaply which in turn makes them more competitive internationally. I just saw Kuroda on the news yesterday saying that he would not raise interest rates in order to strengthen the Yen. Does this also affect inflation?

Can anyone with more insight explain Japanese monetary policy more thoroughly?

Personally, the weak Yen is great for me since some of my income comes from the US and I can buy everything at a discount. Is it wrong that I’m rooting for 150?

[TokyoBoglehead]

If the US keeps raising rates, expect to see the Yen continue to weaken.

It is a pretty straightforward cause and effect situation.

Maybe I should’ve put this in the “for dummies“ thread because I really don’t understand Japanese monetary policy. However, isn’t it a good thing for Japan when the Yen is weak? Since the economy is primarily export oriented companies are able to sell their products more cheaply which in turn makes them more competitive internationally. I just saw Kuroda on the news yesterday saying that he would not raise interest rates in order to strengthen the Yen. Does this also infect inflation?

Can anyone with more insight explain Japanese monetary policy more thoroughly?

Personally, the weak Yen is great for me since some of my income comes from the US and I can buy everything at a discount. Is it wrong that I’m rooting for 150?

Japan Imports almost as much as it exports. Raw material, and foodstuffs are a huge part of this.

A rock bottom yen hurts the average citizen quite a lot.

I would be careful of publicly rooting for a low-yen, keep that on the downlow. Many low income people are facing rising bills and stagnant wages.

2020
PRODUCT
EXPORTS | IMPORTS
$623B | $581B,
4 OF 226 | 5 OF 226 (Global) Ranking

.................................


https://oec.world/en/profile/country/jpn

[Gulliver]

Many low income people are facing rising bills and stagnant wages.

2020
PRODUCT
EXPORTS | IMPORTS
$623B | $581B,
4 OF 226 | 5 OF 226 (Global) Ranking

.................................


https://oec.world/en/profile/country/jpn

Interesting. If that’s the case, the “virtuous cycle” may end up being more of a “virtuous pyramid.”

[TJKansai]

If the US keeps raising rates, expect to see the Yen continue to weaken.

It is a pretty straightforward cause and effect situation.

Maybe I should’ve put this in the “for dummies“ thread because I really don’t understand Japanese monetary policy. However, isn’t it a good thing for Japan when the Yen is weak? Since the economy is primarily export oriented companies are able to sell their products more cheaply which in turn makes them more competitive internationally. I just saw Kuroda on the news yesterday saying that he would not raise interest rates in order to strengthen the Yen. Does this also affect inflation?

Can anyone with more insight explain Japanese monetary policy more thoroughly?

Personally, the weak Yen is great for me since some of my income comes from the US and I can buy everything at a discount. Is it wrong that I’m rooting for 150?

There is a plus for Japanese overseas manufacturers who repatriate profits, but as TokyoBoglehead mentioned, domestic exporters need pricey raw materials first, which drives down overall profits.

[Ax6isB]

Additional data point: the Japanese company I work for is using usd/jpy rate of 136 for next year’s budget, up from 110.

[TJKansai]

6 months down and the JPY continues to fall...147 today.

Guess my 130 target band was pretty far off (though at the time it seemed okay).

[TokyoBoglehead]

6 months down and the JPY continues to fall...147 today.

Guess my 130 target band was pretty far off (though at the time it seemed okay).

I suppose the question (indirectly) is "how long will inflation continue in the US?" The CPI prints keep coming out hot, so everyone and their dog is saying another .75 raise in November.

The BOJ was betting things would be getting back to normal by December. That seems.., unlikely?

My guess is we are back to 140 by June 2023, 130 by Dec 2023.