When do we think we should do a Lump sum investment?

[Bubblegun]

I am sitting with a few million yen.and I am doing DCA at the moment. NISA,JNISA and IDECO. So this isn't a discussion about DCA. We all know the benefits of that, as well as Lump sum investing.

We all understand, that we can't time the market" perfectly, but we can collectively share our thoughts and ideas on what informs us to make a LUMP SUM Investment at a certain Time. and since its probably the first time I would be able to do some lump sum investing I'd like some help from others who are way more experienced than I.
Anyway, I was wondering what indicators do you work on? Who do you listen to? what do you watch? The reason I'm asking is because I have just discovered a new phrase called the "DEAD CAT BOUNCE".Are we in one?

But I was wondering what others thoughts on this are. Some say they are siting on "dry powder" waiting.
DO you think there is quite a bit for the S&P 500 to fall? Micheal Burry thinks things could go down 50% ish and were already down 21% .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts to the newbie.

[goran]

I am sitting with a few million yen.and I am doing DCA at the moment. NISA,JNISA and IDECO. So this isn't a discussion about DCA. We all know the benefits of that, as well as Lump sum investing.

We all understand, that we can't time the market" perfectly, but we can collectively share our thoughts and ideas on what informs us to make a LUMP SUM Investment at a certain Time. and since its probably the first time I would be able to do some lump sum investing I'd like some help from others who are way more experienced than I.
Anyway, I was wondering what indicators do you work on? Who do you listen to? what do you watch? The reason I'm asking is because I have just discovered a new phrase called the "DEAD CAT BOUNCE".are we in one?

But I was wondering what others views on this are.
DO you think there is quite a bit for the S&P 500 to fall? Micheal Burry thinks things could go down 50% ish and were already down 21% .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts to the newbie.

Doesn't answer your question directly. But here's a data point for you.

I did a lumpsump into emaxis all country on May 22.
I was down around 3-5% a couple of weeks back, but now its about +2.25% from when I went in.

[Bubblegun]

I am sitting with a few million yen.and I am doing DCA at the moment. NISA,JNISA and IDECO. So this isn't a discussion about DCA. We all know the benefits of that, as well as Lump sum investing.

We all understand, that we can't time the market" perfectly, but we can collectively share our thoughts and ideas on what informs us to make a LUMP SUM Investment at a certain Time. and since its probably the first time I would be able to do some lump sum investing I'd like some help from others who are way more experienced than I.
Anyway, I was wondering what indicators do you work on? Who do you listen to? what do you watch? The reason I'm asking is because I have just discovered a new phrase called the "DEAD CAT BOUNCE".are we in one?

But I was wondering what others views on this are.
DO you think there is quite a bit for the S&P 500 to fall? Micheal Burry thinks things could go down 50% ish and were already down 21% .

Thanks for sharing your thoughts to the newbie.

Doesn't answer your question directly. But here's a data point for you.

I did a lumpsump into emaxis all country on May 22.
I was down around 3-5% a couple of weeks back, but now its about +2.25% from when I went in.

Thanks for that, and every bit helps us. But could I ask, what was your thinking? buying the dip? Just drop the money in, because you had it?
I'm rather boring when it comes to long term investing, but this time my financial circumstances are different, and inflation could erode the value of what I have.

[RetireJapan]

I have a large amount of cash at the moment, which I am DCAing into mutual funds. At the current rate of purchase (I do an order on Rakuten every time the previous order clears), it will take 15-20 months to be fully invested.

I plan to do a lump sum investment if markets fall considerably/the yen gets stronger/both.

So far that has not happened.

[northSaver]

Here is something I read on a Monday Read link a long time ago and it really struck a chord with me:

"Here's the plan I use with the cash in my portfolio:
When stocks fall 10% from a recent high, I invest half the cash in my portfolio.
When stocks fall 20% from a recent high, I invest half the remaining cash.
When stocks fall 30%, I invest the remaining cash.
Why those levels? In short, because we see 10% declines about once every year or two and 20% declines about once every five to seven years; a 30% decline has happened only six times in the past 70 years. Holding cash for bigger drops is a losing move since the market has always recovered far more than it lost before falling 30% or more again. Sure, it's possible we could see another 30% drop in the next year or less; it's that history says it's not a probability worth betting the farm on."

You can adjust the percentages for other markets too, like bonds (which don't fall as much as stocks usually). And sure, stocks may drop 50% from the high - who knows? - but I personally doubt it. Some smart investors I know are even predicting rate CUTS in the not too distance future!

[goran]

Doesn't answer your question directly. But here's a data point for you.

I did a lumpsump into emaxis all country on May 22.
I was down around 3-5% a couple of weeks back, but now its about +2.25% from when I went in.

Thanks for that, and every bit helps us. But could I ask, what was your thinking? buying the dip? Just drop the money in, because you had it?
I'm rather boring when it comes to long term investing, but this time my financial circumstances are different, and inflation could erode the value of what I have.

Firstly, I am not a seasoned investor, or even remotely close to retirement like most members here.
(so even if I lose every penny, I can probably chalk it off as a steep learning curve at my current phase of life)
I started putting money into NISA and such investment vehicles only from earlier this year.
(I have invested some amount in my home country for more than a decade now)

So, when I started earlier this year, I was sitting on about a year's worth of savings.
Monthly equal investment into regular NISA only took so much from that.

And then I saw the market dropping.
Then the JPY started dropping too, which negated the market's drop.

Then finally, I thought there are just too many moving parts, and I am far less knowledgeable to understand (predict/forecast) any of this.
Keeping the money at near to 0% in bank doesn't make sense. So, I jumped in!

So, it was probably "just drop the money in, because I had it", while thinking that "I was buying the dip".

[mighty58]

Smart people at Vanguard and Morningstar have done the research, using the only numbers they can (past numbers, because we can't predict the future) and DCA is found to be the better approach only 25% of the time.

So unless you can predict the future, any analysis you conduct is ultimately pointless, so just go with what will bring you the better probability for success.

Morningstar research: https://www.morningstar.com.au/learn/ar ... m-i/197410

[Bubblegun]

I have a large amount of cash at the moment, which I am DCAing into mutual funds. At the current rate of purchase (I do an order on Rakuten every time the previous order clears), it will take 15-20 months to be fully invested.

I plan to do a lump sum investment if markets fall considerably/the yen gets stronger/both.

So far that has not happened.

Thanks sharing your thinking on when to drop in a large amount of cash. So I'm assuming you just watch the news and the graphs and will pull that trigger, when the bear comes.

[Bubblegun]

Here is something I read on a Monday Read link a long time ago and it really struck a chord with me:

"Here's the plan I use with the cash in my portfolio:
When stocks fall 10% from a recent high, I invest half the cash in my portfolio.
When stocks fall 20% from a recent high, I invest half the remaining cash.
When stocks fall 30%, I invest the remaining cash.
Why those levels? In short, because we see 10% declines about once every year or two and 20% declines about once every five to seven years; a 30% decline has happened only six times in the past 70 years. Holding cash for bigger drops is a losing move since the market has always recovered far more than it lost before falling 30% or more again. Sure, it's possible we could see another 30% drop in the next year or less; it's that history says it's not a probability worth betting the farm on."

You can adjust the percentages for other markets too, like bonds (which don't fall as much as stocks usually). And sure, stocks may drop 50% from the high - who knows? - but I personally doubt it. Some smart investors I know are even predicting rate CUTS in the not too distance future!

That sounds pretty good. So when the stocks are down, you put on quite a lot, and if they fall even further you drop the rest in.

Yes, I have indeed read there could be interest rate cuts coming too, although I think that might be because it could trigger a recession, and the time lag regarding interest rates is about 2 years. So they'll have to cut them. Although inflation could be a problem.

[RetireJapan]

Thanks sharing your thinking on when to drop in a large amount of cash. So I'm assuming you just watch the news and the graphs and will pull that trigger, when the bear comes.

Even easier: I just look at the price of the eMaxis Slim All-Country fund and go off that.