You do realize that the Shiller P/E ratio cannot be used to predict short-term market movements? And that markets can still rise even while the Shiller P/E ratio is falling?Tkydon wrote: ↑Sat Mar 05, 2022 2:34 am I will commit to making this investment when the Shiller S&P P/E falls to a more reasonable level...
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Before we lose this thread into further walls of text, a few of the earlier points are worth repeating:
- Even if DCA outperforms lump-sum investing over the next 20 months, it cannot be said from this that DCA is the better strategy in general.
- The framing of the experiment isn't actually what is relevant to individuals here. Each individual should consider the date when the cash first became available to them to invest as the baseline, rather than 2022/02/05.
- DCA is fine as a tool to help people manage their emotions in the event of a crash, even if the expected payoff is lower compared to lump sum investing.
It is heartening to see that majority of contributors on this thread are in general agreement on this. And that people holding cash are mainly doing so out of circumstance, rather than confidence in an innate ability to predict short-term market movements
BTW @Tkydon all your quoted figures for the eMAXIS Slim All Country example are wrong - you've used an incorrect fund price for 2022/03/05.