The Monday Read

Oh Happy Day Edition

Last Wednesday our new water heater was installed, just under six months after it broke in January.

Apparently there are still serious shortages of water heaters, toilets, and all sorts of other products in Japan. The reason for this is that they are/were manufactured in China, and the lockdowns/supply chain issues there have resulted in serious disruptions.

Not having hot water for six months wasn’t great, but we got through it (having 3 manshon units on this floor helped a lot, as two of them were still functional). The bigger question for me was ‘has the world changed?’.

Globalised supply chains, cheap prices, instant availability, and a mass consumer culture have been the norm for the last few decades, but that doesn’t mean they will continue indefinitely. What would life be like if that changed? What could/should we do to prepare?

I don’t have answers, or even a strong conviction, but it was interesting to think about.

YouTube

Thank you for your support of the RetireJapan YouTube channel.

There will be more content on there soon sometime.

The Forum

The Forum is doing well (22,161 posts so far). Here are the latest active threads:

This week’s books

Had a pretty good week, reading-wise! Read the final book in Stephen King/Richard Chizmar’s trilogy: Gwendy’s Final Task. It was fine. Nothing earth-shattering but a nice short read.

Also read City on Fire, Don Winslow’s new book. Utterly gripping. I started it on Saturday and finished the next day. Worth picking up if you are a fan, start with The Power of the Dog if you are new to him.

Started Invent and Wander, which turned out to be a collection of shareholder letters and speeches by Jeff Bezos rather than something more substantial. Still very interesting though.

This week’s thing

Long-time readers will know that I have a pretty serious coffee habit. More of a gourmand than a gourmet, I usually use Kirkland espresso beans with an Aeropress.

I’ve always used the paper filters, but looking for some on Amazon last week I found the prices have exploded, and I didn’t like the idea of paying almost ten yen per filter (EDIT: have since found the actual non-ripoff price filters).

So I picked up one of the metal filters.

I’ve been using it for a few days now, and it’s been great. Works fine, easy to clean, the coffee is lightly stronger (bonus!) and I haven’t really seen a downside yet. Recommend checking them out if you have an Aeropress and are still using paper.

Just found this website (12ft ladder) that lets you see paywalled articles. So far it seems to work really well. If you have trouble reading any of the links give it a try!

  1. The thing on everyone’s mind: Global inflation: Japan faces a moment of truth
  2. Written 15 years ago: Warmer, warmer
  3. Latest from Brasor: Media watch: How do Japan’s and Korea’s economies compare?
  4. This Twitter thread is quite different to my experience of getting surgery in Japan, but gels completely with some of my experiences with doctors and family/friends’ experiences.
  5. Damn. The Worst 6 Months Ever For Financial Markets
  6. This was interesting: I lived in motels and ‘forgot to live’: I’m 48, have almost $900,000 and want to retire next year. What can I do?
  7. Really enjoyed this profile. If I am honest, I rarely do three hours of deep work a day: He Dropped Out to Become a Poet. Now He’s Won a Fields Medal.
  8. 5,500 yen a month seems kind of reasonable: Survey reveals average monthly allowance of Japanese high school students
  9. These are the stakes: The Age of Extinction Is Here — Some of Us Just Don’t Know It Yet
  10. Some interesting background: Japanese laws make abortion an economic issue

What do you think? Anything interesting in there?

The Monday Read, going out to more than 2,652 subscribers each week. Please share this post/email with friends/colleagues who may be interested in it.

If you were forwarded the email you can sign up to the list here.

10 Responses

  1. I’ m sort of relieved about #5 because has been this bad and yet I still feel in an okay position. Makes me feel a bit more confident in not panicking in downturns.

    1. I track my portfolio in yen so the weak yen has definitely been disguising the downturn so far… but yep, not bothered in the slightest so far.

  2. I do some work for Mitsubishi Electric and can provide some insight into the “supply chain” issues.
    The parts are sourced from Chinese manufacturers, the assembly is done, for the most part in Japan.
    The issue is that the rejection rate for parts are causing failure rates high enough to seriously hamper profits. Using an example I got from another major manufacturer whom I worked for previously, if parts are coming in at a 2% failure rate, then sufficient profits can be realized. However when the real rejection rate is at 4% then things start turning south quickly. Not only do more parts have to be secured, but repair costs now factor into the equation as well as customer satisfaction levels are affected. With a 4% rate the company now has to consider testing every component before assembly.

    1. Thanks, that is really interesting.

      So if the overseas factories had better quality control, Rinnai might have gotten us our water heater in, say early February instead? ^-^

      You don’t see this being a thing going forward then? Are companies here making plans to manufacture things in Japan instead?

      1. Not sure quality control and geolocation have a direct correlation. Costs and quality control are usually more closely aligned. My Apple products work pretty well. Perhaps a question to ask Rinnai is why am I using you if you don’t have a contingency plan for your supply chain issues?

        If you build a factory in Japan, who’s going to staff it? They can’t even get my local Yoshinoya fully staffed 🙂

  3. #9 Why no mention of self generated problems like overpopulation? India’s population will soon overtake that of China. Both could follow Japan’s lead on that issue!

    1. China is already in decline, and will follow Japan soon. India will also level off soon-ish, leaving Africa as the only region where the population is growing.

      Unless we transform our economies soon, climate change will reduce the global population significantly.

  4. I think we should diversify production to other nations who are more friendly towards us, and have political problems with the CCP. Philippines, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Brunei. And others. In many ways we’ve chased ultra cheap production and created a monster. If diversification is paramount for investment and safety it might also be relevant to international relationships and production.

  5. Busy week for me, just got through the Monday Read. First, I have used the stainless filter for my aeropress since right after finishing my first batch of paper filters. Saving the earth, one filter at a time. Agree that the taste is better, more of the coffee oils make into the cup. Allowances, my daughter is now 2nd year in HS. We give her 7,500 a month but she has to save 2,500 of it. So, she is effectively close to the average. We have always required her to save part of her monthly allowance and it is now natural for her. Hopefully, childhood routines will translate into lifelong habits.

    1. I’m planning to encourage my grandkids to invest in the future (once they start working) by matching their contributions 100%. I’m hoping after a few years of that it will become a habit 🙂